A wall built with import tax

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Take note, the price of goods is about to go up. And that means another bite out of the working man’s wallet. So “Mexico will pay for the Wall” has become taxpayers are going to pay for the Wall. You know, the Wall that every security authority has said is an outrageously expensive symbol that is unnecessary. It will be ineffective; it will be unbuildable. A tax on Mexican goods is going to be paid by customers in the US, not the Mexican government. The Mexican government may lose revenue from taxes paid by its manufacturers. Mexicans may pay with lost jobs. But we, the American people are going to take one more hit when we pay for this monstrosity. Trump may try to convince us that his maneuvers, in some complicated muddle, actually represent Mexican payment for the wall, but the arithmetic won’t add up. We and our children too will be paying for that Wall in federal debt service for years. And along the way, they’ll be asking us to make sacrifices in federal services to ameliorate some of the deficits.  

debt-loadAnd what of the Mexican President? Enrique Pena Nieto’s scheduled meeting with Trump could hardly have proceeded after Trump diss’s him and his country. Only the narcissistic Trump (and Kelleyanne) would make a big deal out of who cancelled the meeting, but it seems likely that it was a mutual cancellation. A civil discussion could hardly be expected in the current atmosphere.

It is hard to imagine that Trump is politically astute enough to have a strategy about governance in Mexico, but someone like Steve Bannon might. Pena Nieto has been unpopular at home but has seen a bump in popularity since he’s stood up against Trump. Their earlier meeting was not popular in Mexico, nor is the super slanderer Trump. However,  more anti-American left wing Mexican populists are watching Pena Nieto carefully and yapping at his heels.

mexican-wallTrump’s America First myopia, so obvious in statements like “unless Mexico is going to treat the United States fairly with respect,’ always casts our country as a victim, rather than the leader of the free world which has provided aid to poorer allies. We have been a country known for empathy for the downtrodden, engaged in programmatic approaches to improvement. Trump’s darker vision of the country parallels his deep personal victimology borne from lack of universal praise and veneration. Trump’s America is the US as a half empty cabinet being pilfered by the world. As an ally, how could a Mexican David show anything but respect for the US Goliath? Trump seems determined to force a slingshot into Mexico’s hand.

Rolling back the clock

nyc1960s_02_1200It is Donald Trump’s vision to take America back to the good old days, when white men called the shots, when corporations could do whatever they wanted to their workforce and to the environment, when police, rampant with corruption, were free to conduct themselves however they pleased. We may be going even further back to the early 20th century when robber barons did even more damage. But his first stop will be the Bush administration. Conservatives believe that information should be controlled. They put a lot of effort into circumscribing available knowledge such that the only choice is the “right way” as they see it.

Thus we had the politicization of science during the Bush 43 administration. CDC websites under Bush 43 were altered to contain false information linking abortion to a higher risk of breast cancer, propaganda from the pro-life movement but scientifically disproven. Funding in global health programs were shifted to those promoting abstinence rather than contraceptives; HIV programs emphasized abstinence rather than condom distribution. Methods proven effective were sacrificed to conservative philosophy.

Well the Bush days are back. EPA employees have been banned from communications outside the agency. Research scientists in the EPA have been ordered to halt projects until they can be reviewed. We may have to worry that the enormous volume of data being accumulated from government global monitoring will somehow be modified. Or the administration will fail to release data with which they don’t agree or simply just lie about it. Knowledge is power and conservatives hate that. New research will likely contradict their worldview. Conservatives are proficient at quashing knowledge under a bonnet of belief but most of the rest of us are not. The argument that liberals are corrupt only goes so far. Eventually people are going to wake up to the bullshit.

Most scientists bristle at working in an environment that tries to circumscribe inquiry, so we can anticipate a mass brain drain from the EPA and other agencies. Trump promised that his administration would be the best and brightest; the most tremendous. But we keep hearing rumors of the trouble the administration is having in recruiting staff, not unlike entertainment for the Inauguration.

Alternative Facts

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Donald Trump’s ego aside, can the size of the Inauguration crowd be a big deal? Of course not. Photographs and eyewitnesses clearly show that the crowd was smaller than in 2008. Why is it important for Trump to always be the biggest and the bestest? His narcissist exterior covers an insecure core. He can hardly believe he won himself. So his Achilles heel is the legitimacy of his election. He needs to have something etched in the record books to show he made a big splash. Otherwise, his press secretary would not have opened his first press conference stating that the Washington and global audience was the largest in history. The press, still stinging from campaign charges that they never called Trump on his lies, immediately called foul. And in doing so they took Trump’s bait.

We don’t know that if online streaming internationally is included, the global audience wasn’t the largest ever. It’s doubtful, given the historic significance for  Obama’s inauguration, but it is 8 years since 2008, so there’s just a lot more web-based media outlets. That’s besides the point. The administration’s outrage at the reaction to the lie is the point.

The outrage is not an accident. It’s not that Trump’s gone off the rails or an inauspicious beginning aimed to coddle his base. It‘s part of a calculated strategy to promote his “movement” whose center is a “conviction that a nation exists to serve its citizens” as Trump said in his inaugural address. “From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first”. Trump claims to be leading a nationalist movement that draws borders around the nation’s mission, dropping the curtain on global leadership that the US assumed during WWII. He’s building his brand.

Trump’s attack on the press is an escalation of his anti-media polemics during and after the campaign. Make no mistake, this is a calculated campaign to discredit the free press. As a bedrock of our democracy, our founding fathers guaranteed a free press in order to create a knowledgeable electorate that could participate in democratic processes. Remember Steve Bannon, whatever his politics, is an accomplished, innovative media strategist. He gained his present position as communications head for the Trump administration by his ingenious manipulation of social media, web-based false reporting and the spread of rumor and innuendo at Breitbart. Bannon used his tools to cement isolated crackpots and anti-government individuals with established Nazi, KKK and conservative right wingers (referred to now as the more palatable alt-right) into a political movement that went all out for Trump.

Another major strain has been the exploitation of the national trend to equate belief with fact. To paraphrase Newt Gingrich, when told that crime statistics show that the crime rate has been declining in contrast to the campaign assertions that it is rising, if the majority of people believe that it is true, then it is and he had to act as if it were true. Others propagating the belief as truth line include Reince Priebus and of course, Kelleyanne. Breitbart spread the seeds far and wide. The hegemony of science and facts, based on concrete evidence, has been supplanted by the elasticity of belief.

Other strains of the Trump attack on free press included demeaning the press as corrupt, united against the candidate in the hopes of defeating him. There were threats to individual reporters, called out by name including Megyn Kelly, exclusions of publications and reporters from Trump’s news entourage. All of this, done to delegitimize the ‘mainstream media’, paralleled by the development of alternative sources including conservative and right wing news outlets.

freedom-of-speech-a-43131e35b50a15398693927645cedb72It is freedom of speech that permits free expression of all forms of speech across the political spectrum, ultra-right to ultra-left, even fake news. Thus the news can report whatever stories it chooses from whatever point of view. Traditionally, we have expected the print, radio and TV outlets to report well documented stories which have been verified by multiple sources. The development of the 24 hour news cycle has thrown much of that into disarray; Fox and CNN make no bones about reporting from a conservative perspective, so much for “objective reporting”. They specialize in breaking news where the reporter is the story. We follow him/her as they search for the news in the moment. Now we have the everyone man reporter; have phone will post. Why not, if they can make you believe in them.

Sean Spicer is free to say whatever he wants from the President’s news podium. It is our country’s expectation that the our chief executive will tell us the truth. Certainly, many Presidents have lied to the country, but having enjoyed a respite under Obama, we’ve forgotten how common it was. And the press has doggedly pursued the lies, precisely because it is a free press.

trump-caractureTrump, nurtured in the celebrity bubble, appears to have a different perception of the role of the press. Perhaps, his comfort with the falsehood derives words as celebrity publicity, to be contorted in ways that put the star’s best foot forward. He suffers from the delusion that the best press coverage says what you want it to. Trump was flying high when that’s exactly what happened during the campaign. Now the media is reeling from the sucker punches. Still Trump is more in control than not; the daily scramble to cover and the night’s Tweets continues.  

But the press can report whatever it wants. A free press has no obligation to the Chief executive to say what he desires. The obligation is to the public. And that’s the part that’s wrangling Trump. So, he’s restricted access by avoiding the press, except through controlled interviews, short pronouncements in the Trump Tower Lobby. In his first press conference, delayed almost until inauguration, he bullied the press, even rising to the ultimate dirty word “Nazi”, while he castigated and refused to answer a question from a  reporter from CNN which had reported the Russian “golden shower” rumor. Each time a press attack occurs, the administration threatens to limit press access. After the crowd count flurry, Kelleyanne glibly stated that Sean Spicer had offered “alternative facts” about crowd size. What is an alternative fact exactly? Is it similar to the “truth that is a lie” or the “lie that is the truth” that so dominated the campaign. The administration would have to “ rethink their relationship with the press” as has been rumored before. They may move the press core away from the White House, obviously there will be fewer press briefings.

Trump is maneuvering around the mainstream media; Tweets are only one part of it. President Deal Maker uses phone calls and closed meeting so he can disclose what he chooses and interpret it to his supporters and then secondarily to press. The White House will have it’s own social media apparatus. But by discrediting the mainstream press, he’s hoping that fewer and fewer people will believe them. In that spirit, Sean Spicer was back in a press conference saying that he had misspoken about the crowd number, never intentionally meaning to mislead the press. This is a cat and mouse game. To his supporters, Trump is continuing to make an effort with the unruly press. The press is hoping for a reprieve that will normalize the press corps. But then, Trump will use another occasion to bully and discredit them. The bully intimidates through capriciousness; the victim never knows when the hammer (and sickle, pun intended) will fall.

dictatortrumpThese activities have all the hallmarks of a dictator in the making. Destruction of a free press is vital to ongoing government control. Currently the Egyptian military and Turkey’s Erdogan, both countries that lack constitutional guarantees of a free press, have closed newspapers, harassed and detained reporters and exported dissidents. The state controls TV and radio. Russians, who have never known a free press nor possessed even a rudimentary understanding of democracy, get information that is completely controlled by the state. The vast majority of Russians believe Putin’s version of the world and its’ events, because they haven’t heard anything else. Vast stretches of Russia have no electricity, let alone internet access, so they are cut off from any web based alternative internet sources.

Is the strength of the Women’s March a wedge against Trump’s reign? Protests mean nothing if they don’t translate into political action. Remember Occupy Wall Street? In contrast, Tea Party is exemplary of a movement mobilized through local organizing into a political power at the national level in only 2 years. Take heed. We need to take another stab at draining the Washington swamp of the new oligarchs and as well as the old politicians. One election at a time, we can achieve what Trump said on January 17, “transferring power from Washington D.C. and giving it back to the people”. We mean the majority of the patchwork of the country that is the 99th, not Trump’s millionaire and billionaire one percenters.

Those who believe that people who voted for Trump do not have the same needs and hopes as those who marched should put their signs down and get back on their computers. We have to stop yelling at them about our rights and begin to find common ground to meet common goals, one issue at a time. That means we have to listen so we can hear their point of view. Most of them don’t actually believe that the fatcats are finally going to put them first; they’ve just been sold a bill a goods that “the others” are the problem, not the robber barons.

Make no mistake. Trump’s not listening even if protests movements put more people into the streets than his inauguration crowd. Because he doesn’t have to. He’s set for 4 years, unless he manages to blow us all up first.

The day before the Inauguration of Donald Trump

obama-hope-posterI’m was watching President Barack Obama’s last press conference. There’s no real news there; it’s no longer important what he thinks about future policy. But, it’s a symptom. I find myself hungering for his calm voice, his demeanor, his often eloquent phraseology. His intelligent and thoughtful approach to the language he speaks as he presents his rationale for why he has done what he has done. As he glides through his answers to questions across the spectrum, the intelligence of his logic flows through multisyllabic words.

Obama’s farewell speech was fabulous and I luxuriated in it. I have watched and listened to countless hours of shows reviewing the Obama years, punctuated by analysis from left and right. It has helped the noise from Kellyann Conway and Reince Priebus, masters of the sleaze that slides so easily off their tongues, half truths and outright lies. Eighteen hours and counting.

trump-mosaic

Then BOOM. The craziness begins. The empty promises that will lie dormant and forgotten, reversed or even denied. It’s all just talk. The tweets which leave no official records but poison the air; we are fortunate when they focus on SNL or Meryl Streep. Not so lucky with China and Putin. The damage is being done worldwide. Foolish statements by a foolish man can bury a nation.

Those who voted for Trump and all the other Republicans are going to bring us all down. Dammit, you bought it but we’re all going to have to pay for it. And you’re not even going to get anything out out- not jobs, not revitalization, not higher wages. You can see what’s happening with Obamacare. Paul Ryan is so out of touch, he thinks ACA is on life support, among the worst disasters to strike the country. And yet, more than 50% of the country is happy with what Obamacare is doing. The Republicans are rushing to complete a campaign promise to something that they themselves manufactured. And those voters who supported them, as well as everyone else, are soon going to find themselves without health insurance or without higher premiums and limited access to the physicians they want to see because the insurance companies will once again rule the roost. Kiss goodbye to the expanded access to contraception that has driven down the number of pregnancies as well as the number of abortions. We know at least that much about whatever the Republicans are going to come up; they have never been more inclusive nor reached out to the “little guy”. However, we do know that they have systematically set about making the rich richer, now to an absurd extent. The multimillionaires in the incoming cabinet haven’t felt a need to provide much disguise. They will be out there to get as much as they can get for themselves (as they have been doing) and they don’t even feel the need to do it ethically or legally.

Trump, the candidate, was unique in that he began to peel away some of the race-baiting politics the Republicans have practiced since Richard Nixon. The party has subtlety camouflaged race in attacks on “takers” (read minorities) and criminals (read Blacks and Hispanics) when it deflects the political narrative away from corporate fatcats who have been systematically transferring wealth from the middle class to the top 10%. If you’re white, darker skins are the source of your problems; if you’re a minority, it’s the prejudice of the whites you have to blame. Both those groups are left squabbling over scraps while the rich abscond with the beef.

Who is responsible for the export of jobs overseas and the downsizing of the workforce? Is it China or Mexico or India or Pakistan? No, it is the corporate boards that took advantage of the economic downturn to increase productivity by invading worker leisure time (e.g. 24 hour emails and texts). An oversupply of labor led businesses, large and small, to use part-time positions and contractors to eliminate company benefits. They used the threat of a crowd outside the door lined up to take your job to secure compliance in workplaces with low wages and unfair practices. None of those changes in the economy can be laid at Obama’s feet or minorities either who, unfortunately, own a minuscule piece of the economic pie. And bad trade treaties with China, Mexico, Europe aren’t the problem either.

trump-inauguralThe Trump administration is ditching all that subterfuge. He started in the campaign, decrying political correctness for bigoted name calling which emboldened his minions to do the same. Now that he’s won, he has called his band of multimillionaire supporters into the halls of government, out of the back rooms where they were whispering in politicians’ ears to the head of government. They can restructure the government in service of raping the country and its citizens to add to their own personal wealth. His appointees aren’t shy about it either. We hear the resurgence of “states rights”, e.g “that should be left to the discretion of the states”. “The federal government should not intrude on the states who are best placed to understand their own needs.” That’s political speak for spreading ill-begotten wealth outside the Washington bubble.

There will be more beyond the policy changes. Trump and his band of merry men and women will be lining their pockets from the government coffers too. If there’s a sweetheart deal, or influence peddling, or unfair competition against rival companies, or stock trading on advance information or international deals out there, these folks will be scooping them up with shovels. If they allow their Congressional colleagues in on the deals, ethical questions will not come up. And as long as they can create the laws, they can make what was previously illegal, legal. Beyond that, Trump has banished the press from White House information sources and shifted to less traceable Tweets and phone communications to cover the administration’s tracks. No doubt, much business will happen in the safety of Trump Towers, where he plans to spend a considerable amount of time, as well as his other residences. Contracts can be kept out of public view by lawyers and the simple refusal to disclose, just as with his tax returns.

Trump doesn’t really care what the public thinks. He won. There is nothing we can do in the next four years, short of impeachment. He wants to be popular, yes, but his magical thinking allows him to dismiss any evidence as corrupt or fake news. Rumor has it that many of his Twitter followers are fake accounts or paid.

So, when Trump mounts the podium for his inaugural address, I won’t have to worry about syntax or synonyms or multisyllabic words or even full sentences. I plan on counting the number of “great”, “huge”, “tremendous” and “amazing” in some game format to distract from the message. Who am I kidding? I won’t be watching. I’ll rely on Trevor, Seth, Samantha, and Jon Oliver to show me the highlights. It’s the only way to keep from crying.

Hidden Fences

hidden-colors-facebookI have to thank Jena Bush for her Red Carpet flub: “Hidden Fences” confabulated “Hidden Figures” and “Fences”, two Golden Globe film nominees about the African American experience. Actually, it seems apropos for the themes in the movie “Hidden Figures”. The director deftly exposed the damage that Jim Crow left on the country. Black Laws continue to reverberates in today’s world, a lesson often lost on most citizens.  

Hidden Figures tells the story of those NASA engineers and mathematicians who launched the US into space while being doubly cursed by their blackness and gender. The setting was NASA in Langley Virginia in the early 1960s, as the civil rights movement was gaining some momentum. It is the story of Black women who struggled to overcome every roadblock Jim Crow could mount in order to contribute to American achievements; an America which they cherished, even as it tried to relegate them to a garbage heap. The movie culminates with John Glenn’s successful orbit of the earth, the beginning for the ascendency of the American space program to surpass the Russians in the race to the moon. The implications are clear- it was only when the US began to harness the talents of all it’s citizens, no matter what skin color, that the dream of space exploration became a reality.  

The film is peppered with small details, like the assumption by whites that the Black person in the room is the janitor, an experience every Black professional today is familiar with. And larger insults; after Katherine Johnson takes a cup of coffee from the urn, a  coffee pot labeled “colored” appears and she has to make her own.

c23979c7-e8ee-4315-bb6c-cbd3805825e8-large16x9_hiddenfigureshf049_rgbIt should not be lost that almost a decade after Brown v Bd of Education in 1954, which overturned segregated schools, Mary Jackson (Jonelle Monae) must petition to take night classes in a whites only high school in her quest to become an aerospace engineer. The judge states empathically that schools in Virginia are segregated by state law. Virginia, the state where Brown originated, held out against school integration until the 1980s when integration was still nominal at best. Districts closed public schools, created private white “academies” funded with tax dollars and fought through court cases. Mary was encouraged by her boss, a Polish holocaust survivor who is buoyed by an optimism born of multiple scrapes with death in a concentration camp. He had no understanding of the difference between the less virulent than Nazi expressions of ethnic/religious bigotry in the US and America’s unique systematic degradation by a color. The Nazis used gas. Nightriders used hangman’s nooses, shotguns, fire and bombs.  Mary Jackson needs to get additional credits to qualify for an engineering position in NASA. NASA’s practice is made obvious in the “whites only” bathrooms and drinking fountains but here the subtleties are revealed in the creation of multiple hurdles for Blacks like changes in job qualifications and refusals to promote. Jim Crow laws were infinitely adaptable overtime; whenever a loophole appeared, a new plug was developed. As Mary put it, “they just keep moving the goal”.

The Soviets launched Sputnik and then Yuri Gagarin orbited the earth, while the US could not even get their rocket into space. The country was terrified of the threat of Soviet nuclear weapons launched from space, and NASA was nowhere close to a solution. Al Harrison (Kevin Costner), team leader,  asks his group what the Russians are doing that the US is not. DUH!  The Soviet Union recognized talent in its children early, no matter the country or ethnic group of origin. They nurtured that talent with intensive education and special treatment. They insured that the Soviets used the best and the brightest. The contrast to the US is striking. Blinded to the potential of all its people, authorities in the US not only didn’t look at everyone, they quashed talent if it came with dark skin.

hiddenfigures-tarajiphenson-officeThe ways in which Jim Crow lowered productivity in the workplace is nowhere better demonstrated than the “colored bathroom”. Mary Jackson spent 40 minutes getting back and forth to the nearest bathroom, available in the building where a group of colored women worked. Rain or shine, she ran one half mile, carrying her work with her. When Al Harrison confronts her about the long absences, Katherine, soaking wet, explodes in a diatribe about her working conditions, possible only because of her valued work and sympathetic boss. The audience applauded when Harrison smashed the “colored bathroom” sign off the wall, ending the practice in his area. Even more impressive is the acceptance by the rest of the white women in the division. At least, that’s the way the movie betrayed it. The real life experience was probably peppered with daily at least verbal assaults on Black women. So be it. Katherine worked many a late hour doing what could have been done during those 40 minute runs.

hidden-figures-movie-image-stillThe script has some choice dialogue.“I have nothing against you all” says one white supervisor to Dorothy Vaughn (Octavia Spencer) who replies,”I think you believe you don’t”. It would take too much explaining to capture the broad implications of that statement, from the sense of superiority and self worth segregation gave whites to the job security they gained from denying access to jobs that should have belonged to better qualified Blacks who often outperformed them. Mary Jackson ran circles around her supervisor Paul Stafford who repeatedly took credit for her work while trying to conceal information needed to do the job and excluding her from meetings. Along the way, he used security clearance and gender cards. NASA was fortunate she eluded his every move or we might yet be trying to get to the moon.

hidden-figures-df-06401_r_rgb-1024x684The lesson of separate and unequal is clear. We work less efficiently, mired in racial tensions. Our country is squandering the talents of many considered to be unworthy of education by class, race, ethnic group, and zip code. As long as school funding is dependent on residence, schools will remain segregated. As long as educational funding depends on tax base, the poor will be left in schools without resources. The result is the falling international ranking of test scores of US kids compared to other countries. Worst still, rather than utilize our native talent, we are filling our graduate schools, particularly in STEM studies, with the Chinese and other foreign students. The advantage for universities is these students, often sponsored by their governments, pay full tuition. But often the Chinese take their skills home with them where they work to copy discoveries or counterfeit products. We are importing Indians and other Asians to work in high tech jobs, rather than training our own. It’s a double whammy; we are simultaneously neglecting our own resources and training foreign resources to compete with us.

Mr Trump, we’re waiting

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When Trump emerged from his national security briefing about Russian sabotage, he had little to say. In his statement, he defused the perpetrators to include China, other countries and outside groups and the targets to include businesses, organizations, and governmental institutions. These topics were also covered by the security report. He tossed in comments that absolutely, the activity did not affect the election outcome. But that was Trump’s own confection. None of the agencies investigated the impact of cyber-activity on the outcome of the election; that was not their mandate.

In fact, determining the impact of a whole range of cyber activity is a difficult and complex task. Within the deluge of fake news and tweets, were independent right wing practitioners, both foreign and domestic as effective as Russian operatives?. How effective were the fake news stories and Facebook posts compared to the incessant chatter about the email server? How much did the press’ laser focus on emails interfere with the delivery of the Democratic platforms’ message? Cartoonist Gary Varvel: Pied piper Donald TrumpWas the minute to minute coverage of Trump’s rallies which was masqueraded as breaking news, more effective than the release of DNC emails by Wikileaks? How did the role of the press’ fascination with Trump as a ratings and subsequent advertising rate booster effect Clinton’s campaign coverage? Did any of it matter in the face of Trump and Republican strategies to tap into racial and ethnic divisions, honed over the years since Ronald Reagan developed coded words for the threat from black and brown minorities to whites. Trump, himself, did forego a lot of the codes, which made it socially acceptable once again to wear bigotry proudly, except in liberal circles. What were those Trump supporters in middle America really thinking? No, the CIA, FBI and Homeland were in no position to investigate any of that.

Trump has tunnelled his vision to any insinuation that his victory was not overwhelming, therefore somehow tainted by the insulation of illegitimacy. It pricks his megalomaniacal Achilles heel. It’s hard for him to see the threat to the American electoral process as yet another manifestation of Putin’s aggressive pursuit of Russian global supremacy. He has so vigorously sidestepped and denied Kremlin involvement, he needs time to formulate a rationale with the right spin. We know it will not include an acknowledgement for his own error or an apology for dissing’ the security agencies. That is something Trump can not do. He usually just moves on with a barrage about other topics, as if he never said anything at all. Always the smoke and mirrors!

I expected a Tweet overnight, but silence on the fact that the Russian government ordered the hacking remains. Finding an appropriate rejoinder, that will simultaneously appease his base, now sympathetic to the Kremlin, and Congressional Republicans mobilizing for additional Russian sanctions, is a tough task.

twitter-logoInstead, his Twitter stream today was full of backslapping over his election victory. Once again, he insisted the election outcome was not affected, even though there’s been no investigation into that. “Voting machines not touched!” Trump tweeted. No one has suggested that voting machines were tampered with. “The only reason the hacking of the poorly defended DNC is discussed is the loss by the Dems was so big that they are totally embarrassed!”  He characterized the RNC as having strong defenses against hacking, but the DNC was grossly negligent to let it happen. He thinks only fools would oppose good relationships with Russia. The 140 character limit restricted discussion of how that is possible, assuming that Trump had any idea. And he will ask Congressional committees to investigate the leak of the intelligence report information to NBC before he saw the report. At least, they have some ideas about what to do with the information, unlike Trump. Trevor Noah tweeted that NBC should quickly change the name to “Russia”. Trump should remember NBC is broadcasting the New Apprentice, which Trump executive produces.

And the report detailed Russian incursions into other areas of government, like the military, power and infrastructure grids, threatening future actions that could be at least as devastating as any lone actor or Jihad inspired bomber.

Trump surrogates got busy trying to convince us that it doesn’t matter who did it. Of course it does! This is a foreign government we’re talking about! It’s not an errant individual, which would be bad enough. And this is hacking to a different degree. It is not Target or Yahoo, which has individual personal consequences. The Russian activity has implications for the whole country. Activities of foreign governments can not be lumped together with private corporate hacking by cybercriminals. It has far more sinister implications worldwide.

russian-bearThere is still very little conversation in this country about the enormous global propaganda boost for the Kremlin. Russian influence has been ratcheted up to the stars. The Russian bear is powerful enough to penetrate computer servers in the US, at the highest governmental levels. Putin was able to disrupt the American electoral process, whether it affected the outcome or not. Putin’s favored candidate won the US presidency and so far appears to be putty in the dictator’s hands. Since the Russians created a narrative that the US instigated the Russian protests against Putin’s resuming their presidency, they can now smugly say that Putin not only retained and extended his power but his revenge assisted a change in his enemy’s leadership that is more favorable to his regime. And he has precipitated chaotic debate in the US, splitting the leadership of the Republican party from it’s newly elected president. With the destruction of Hillary Clinton, her party is stumbling to recover its political core. While this scenario may seem farfetched in American mind, Europeans, where parties rather than candidates dominate, have a different perspective. Propaganda can often appear farfetched.

Europeans, Asians and the underdeveloped world are watching and shuddering at the loss of superpower cover. The Russians have been meddling in European elections for years. A small example is that Marie Le Pen head of the French right wing party evolved from the Nazi Party, financed the party’s upcoming campaign with a loan from a Russian bank. If the Russians were so successful in the US, can they be equally effective in multi-party European elections and consensus governments?

The Chinese and North Koreans have perked up their ears to look for opportunities. Netanyahu and the Israeli right wing have exploited our government’s transition to push their own agenda. In the wake of the successful Russian maneuver to exclude the United States from discussions of a truce in Syria, the Russian bear, has become, once again, a world power. This situation will be dumped in Trump’s lap on day one of the new administration. Historically, this is the time when friends and enemies start testing the flavor of the new president’s philosophy. Any observer would grant, Trump’s foreign policy knowledge is weaker than previous White House occupants. His supporters have clamored for the supremacy of a domestic agenda. And yet, foreign events happen at inconvenient times, requiring a quick response.  

While Trump’s still missing the boat, Mike Pence stepped into the breach with a statement that the incoming administration would aggressively combat cyber attacks, studiously avoiding any mention of the Kremlin. The Russian myopia is creeping. . .

Putin’s bloodless coup

 

trump-putin-image-2Vladimir Putin has managed a feat that a century of Russian Communist dictators could not. He has installed a puppet leader in the United States. Our incoming President appears to be marching to a Russian drummer. Trump deluded voters into thinking they were electing a president who  would put America first. What they picked is a wolf in sheep’s clothing tiptoeing down a path that will lead to a country, withdrawn from world leadership, economically crippled and socially divided while a dysfunctional government remains mired in partisan political wrangling.

The most obvious indication that Putin has some tether on Trump is the Russian hacking scandal. This is far more significant than the odd compliment that he has thrown Putin’s way. At first, he dismissed the CIA contention that Russians had hacked the DNC, calling on the Russians during the campaign debates to hack into Clinton’s server to find her lost emails. Some would call such a statement treasonous. Later Trump raised the specter of the infamous weapons of mass destruction debacle that launched us into the Iraq war to insult the agency. Once the FBI concluded Russian cyberattacks were intended to assist his election victory, all bets were off. Trump has been hurling insults at the security agencies through reporters as well as on Twitter. Smarting from the implication that his was not a legitimate victory, Trump, enlisting the aid of his surrogates, launched a series of repartees, each peppered with slurs on the security agencies. The culmination of Trump’s initial dismissals was his megalomaniacal statement on New Year’s Eve that he knew stuff about hacking that other people don’t know thereby casting himself as superior to the thousands of security experts at FBI, CIA and Home Security. He copped out on his reveal of the “stuff” he knew, but it could be coming. Ok, probably not. Just a media psyche.

It’s worth noting here that the DNC “hacking” was not one of those sophisticated backdoor firewall disabling maneuvers. It was the run of the mill phishing attack, using emails to get passwords. Billions of these attacks happen every day; just check your email. DNC employees did seem unschooled in even basic internet security. It had been falsely reported, by Julian Assange, that Clinton’s campaign chair, John Podesta’s password was password. Apparently, he clicked a link in phishing email because of a typo in a link sent by a coworker.

Trump seems determined to war on our national security agencies. The latest salvay seems designed to rub salt in an already gaping wound.  He tweeted out a lie about the timing of the scheduled meeting for his security briefing, trying to discredit the agencies again. The choice of Julian Assange, an international criminal and accused rapist installed in the English Ecuadorian Embassy to avoid arrest, as Trump’s latest ally in the dispute with the CIA/FBI raises further questions about Trump’s media savvy. Assange, the head of WikiLeaks, which released the DNC emails, could only be considered a valid source by Edward Snowden defenders, hackers, conspiracy theorists, and deep web enthusiasts, probably numbered among Trump supporters.

Now he has floated the possibility that he will need to reorganize the national security organizations. Is this an implied threat about job security in agencies who continue to pursue Russian cyber threats?

Trump is acting like a victim of blackmail or a signatory to an unsavory contract. Blackmail is standard operating procedure for Russian security since before the KGB. They are not above planting false information either. The Russian word for this kompromat. What could Putin’s hook be? Trump has had a long standing fascination with Russia. He has been involved in several attempts at development deals over the years, none of which came to fruition. He bankrolled a failed Russian mixed martial arts league and proposed reality TV show in 2008.

miss-universeTrump travelled to Russia in 2013 for his Miss Universe Pageant. Certainly, Trump was surveilled by the Russian security (a routine as it was probably for the CIA) during the trip. Some misbehavior could be the source of one Putin hook. Trump tried desperately to get Putin to attend his Miss Universe contest, tweeting invitations on his way there. Sadly, he ended his twitter stream asking something like “Will he be my best friend”, sounding more like a doting adolescent than a 65 year old man. Putin did not attend, but sent a gift.

The deal to take Miss Universe to Russia was brokered by the son of a Russian billionaire who is an entertainer who worked with a former Universe contestant. One agent talked to another who talked to Trump. And voila! A deal was struck to hold the pageant in the Russian mogul’s concert hall, nothing like scratching each other’s back. The two talked about other additional business deals during their interactions. This Russian oligarch is favored with extensive Putin government contracts, marking him as a Putin pal.

Trump has had numerous business deals with Russian oligarchs and these are people he has hobnobbed with. He sold his Palm Beach mansion to one for $100 million. He has sold other properties to multiple Russian billionaire tenets. It’s not hard to imagine other Russian money invested in Trump projects. Eric Trump has said that Russian money makes up a significant portion of the money the Trumps are making on their properties. Imagine is what we have to do, given Trump’s refusal to reveal his business empire. That failure to reveal may be covering another Putin hook.

And then there are the associations of Trump’s associates. There’s Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign chair. His relationship with Trump’s transition team and upcoming administration is unclear but he probably still has some influence. He was a political consultant for the former president of Ukraine, a Russian puppet before his ouster in 2014. He has also worked for other Putin cronies. Manafort spearheaded an effort to keep a plank against Russian action in the Ukraine out of the Republican Party platform. Another Trump campaign adviser, Carter Page, went to Moscow during the campaign. Page was on the board of Gazprom, a Russian energy corporation when he made the trip. The Trump organization distanced itself from him during the campaign.

Of course, there are questions about Rex Tillerson, who negotiated a deal as Exxon CEO partnering with Rosneft, the state owned oil company. Rosneft is said to have a direct pipeline into Putin’s pocket. No wonder Putin gave him a medal. Tillerson is also a friend of Igor Sechin, leader of the Kremlin military and security faction. Tillerson defied the Obama administration to attend an oil conference in Russia last year. While he opposed sanctions against Russia while at Exxon, clearly representing Exxon’s financial interests in resuming oil drilling in the Arctic, revelations of his positions on Russian policies will have to wait for his confirmation hearings. How his boss’ attitudes will alter Tillerson’s own can only be determined as the administration progresses.

While the Republicans have adamantly denied that the RNC was hacked, it is not beyond the possibility that the Russians have gathered up some emails that they’re saving for future “influence” on Trump or other Republican operatives. Many security experts think it’s likely that the Russians may have information from other sources, not yet discovered.

160801-trump-putin-kissing-mbe-445p_2243b5f340e83461b265385fa5005243-nbcnews-ux-2880-1000All this speculating is adding up to a blockbuster movie or series script. A businessman and reality TV star is blackmailed by Russian security for various indiscretions to become an unlikely candidate for the US presidency. Russian dirty tricks and web based activity, including social media posts of fake news and Twitter as well as cyber-espionage help the unlikely candidate, ridiculed at first, win the White House. The newly elected candidate begins setting himself up in opposition to the outgoing president, maliciously using Twitter to grab the attention of the press to which he studiously avoided talking. He ignores government traditions and begins a dialogue within the country about Russia that creates a global propaganda windfall for the Russian president, grown more powerful in the world’s eye. He sets about undermining American policy with European allies and the Chinese. All while the reigning president was still in office. He tries to undermine the country’s confidence in the intelligence community, while dissuading legislators and the public from responding to the Russian espionage. His cabinet appointees are designated to implode their government agencies. His early acts in the White House reverse consumer friendly regulations that will swell the profit of businesses. His tax reforms cuts will create huge deficits, which ultimately will splinter Congress, causing periodic shut downs over raising the debt ceiling. US government bond ratings will fall, further increasing the deficit because of increasing interest rates to finance the debt. China and Russia will become the established world leaders as our allies scramble for cover while watching the US recede from leadership. . . Let’s hope the script is more fanciful than the reality.

It’s time to put up or shut up

congressjpg-a344076487fe7823When the 115th Congress opened on January 3, Republicans reached their Dunkirk. Since its passage in 2009, Republicans have shouted for the death of the Affordable Care Act. In each session, a total of 61 times, they have voted to repeal Obamacare, just so their junior Congressmen could campaign in the next election that they had voted against it. Obamacare is a Republican dog whistle; a battle cry in every partisan pronouncement they’ve made throughout the Obama presidency.

But yesterday, rather than sounding a trumpet fanfare to announce the consummation of that 4 year promise, Mike Enzi introduced a budget resolution, a sneaky way to minimize any potential damage from Democrats. Republicans “own” Congress, and they are still mired in partisan game playing. Old habits die hard. A budget resolution needs a simple majority of 51 of 100 votes to pass; there are 52 Republicans in the Senate. The budget resolution contains reconciliation instructions, which means that committees will disassemble Obamacare funding in the process of balancing taxes and expenditures in the budget. This process will take months.

It’s politically savvy, though. Republicans will talk the walk like it’s a fate accompli. After all, they only promised to repeal Obamacare. Supporters will be jubilant and cajoled to wait while Republicans scramble up a replacement health care plan. The danger is that the use of the budget mechanism threatens to disrupt the continuing function of the program unless the changes are carefully considered. No government program can operate without funds. Just the prospect of defunding could drive the insurance companies out of the exchanges effectively, ending coverage. When 30 million people start to complain, Republicans are going to be saddled with the blame. Ah, the responsibilities of governing.

It turns out, Repeal Obamacare was more a political rallying promise than a deep seeded desire of the ordinary citizen. Surrounded by the Washington bubble, Republican members of Congress failed to recognize that thousands of their constituents are happy with the changes that the Affordable Care Act made possible. The principal evidence is the stampede to sign up for the insurance exchanges at the end of 2016. People love the impact that elimination of preexisting conditions had on their ability to get insurance at affordable premiums. People want to extend coverage to children up to age 26. And although the premiums have increased each year, government subsidies have kept them affordable. There is no question that at least 20 million more people have access to healthcare than before the legislative program came into being.we-love-obamacare

Republicans never miss a chance to say Obamacare has failed, contrary to the flood of new Obamacare enrollees.  Mike Pence went so far as the contention that the American people voted overwhelming to eliminate Obamacare. That’s just partisan grandstanding bullshit. They voted for Trump (and not overwhelmingly; just enough in the right places) but a recent survey found that when questioned about the specific features of the plan rather than the name, over 70% favored the plan. It’s probable that many of the Trumpophants who chanted so loudly for Obamacare’s end were not users or failed to realize that Medicaid in many states, such as West Virginia’s coal counties, is an integral part of the medical insurance provided by the Affordable Healthcare Act through Medicaid expansion. Recall that 90% of the states’ additional Medicaid costs are on Uncle Sam’s tab. Damn that federal overreach!

What they don’t like, or at least this is what Republicans have propagandized, is the mandate that requires everyone to obtain health insurance or face a penalty. It’s government overreach! They contend that the government can not interfere with the sacred American right to make stupid choices. In fact, the penalties are minor and many young healthy millennials have opted out and pay the penalty. Unfortunately, we can’t have our cake and eat it too. Insurance companies operate on risk estimates; basically they calculate how likely they are to have to spend your premiums on your medical care rather than pocket them for profit. If you’re chronically ill, they’ll have to spend more on your care than you paid. It is a fact that 20% of patients consume 80% of the care. However, if you’re young and healthy, you probably won’t need any care at all. Insurance companies have explained much of needed increases in premiums as the failure of enough healthy people to sign up on the exchanges.

And therein lies the rub. If there is no mechanism to “encourage” healthy people to sign up, then the goal of affordable premiums is difficult to achieve. If the Obamacare mandate is eliminated, another punishment or a reward has to be substituted. The Republicans have had at least 5 years of bellyaching to formulate a replacement plan. Perhaps, initially, they thought we could just return to the pre-Obamacare status quo mixture of private and public insurance plans. Their business supporters would have been less than enthusiastic about that, given the business clamor for control of the costs of medical insurance that spearheaded the impetus for healthcare reform.

Having staked out the position of party of obstructionist opposition to Obama’s initiatives, Republicans abandoned policy development for sniping at the President. Thus 4 years after Obama’s reelection and two months after the Trump victory, they still don’t have legislation ready to go. Now that repealing Obamacare is a reality, Republicans have tempered their rhetoric, retreating from Obamacare is the embodiment of evil, to, of course we want to keep elimination of preexisting conditions and coverage for children up to age 26. Now it’s sounding like they’re just aiming to change the name, not the essence of the program.repeal_stamp_grunge

Of course Republicans could never live with government exchanges so that’s out. They don’t believe in subsidies to individuals either, although they’re happy to subsidize businesses; they call them tax incentives or farm subsidies. So, they will have to create a private insurance pathway to replace the insurance exchanges, but more importantly, they will have to create a mechanism to make policies affordable.

Trump has said that he would allow insurance companies to sell across state lines, therefore increasing competition and lowering costs. If only Adam Smith’s economic theories applied to modern economic systems and niche markets, like the insurance industry. Each state has a unique constellation of factors that impact profit and loss across various areas throughout the state. Just a sample of factors include number and location of doctors, specialists and facilities, number of medical conglomerates and number of insurance companies in the market. There is no guarantee that opening the gates to all states will find insurance companies hopping through them. To help seal the deal, Trump could always try Twitter-shaming, his current nonpresidential trick. The technique seems lively to carry over, given the ballyhoo with which it’s been received. Maybe he’ll add in a strategic phone call or two to company executives or encourage a sweetheart deal with a state government.

One caveat, without the quality assurances of Obamacare (read that as regulation), there will be no check on the quality of insurance plans being offered. Less expensive policies can offer catastrophic coverage which covers large expenses like accidents and emergency services, but a visit for a sprained ankle or a pap smear will be out of pocket. Or, the copays or coinsurance or exclusions in the cheaper policies may preclude making an office visit all together. In short, more deferred medical care resulting in more emergency room visits, driving up the expense and subsequent medical debt. Sounds a lot like healthcare pre-Obamacare.

Republicans are not known to favor people who are struggling to stay financially afloat. Trump proclaimed that he represented them, but the party didn’t claimed to. In the past they have favored private health care accounts or tax credits to lower costs, but those devices simply move the individual’s own money into different columns rather than help lower the impact on their budget. People who fall into the low income range now included in the Obamacare Medicaid expansion may be plumb out of luck.

And finally, Republicans will need a plan for transition from the extensive regulatory and administrative changes instituted under Obamacare to whatever they’ve created. They have their work cut out for them. I wish them luck. Tick tock; tick tock.