Under a Very Dark Cloud

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Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

For those looking to the Supreme Court to hold the line of defense against the nation’s slide into unchecked executive power, the news of Justice Kennedy’s resignation delivered a final gut punch in an already heavy week. While Kennedy represented a potential swing vote, for those who thought or perhaps hoped that SCOTUS was above politics, the fact that Republican appointed justices supported the Muslim ban and Democratic appointed ones did not, paints a different picture. The court is deeply involved in the politicization of justice; all of the most recent 5 to 4 decisions have broken along partisan political lines. The court’s decision supporting the Muslim ban pretty much handed 45 the sceptre: confirming that the president does indeed have wide ranging executive authority. An odd decision for those who call themselves Originalists, for this is antithetical to the express intent of the Founding Fathers who created a government designed to keep the President from monarchical powers by creating two other branches. It looks now like those 2 branches have abdicated their responsibilities.

The timing of Kennedy’s announcement, after all he has always been a conservative, confirms that he’s aligned with the forces of evil. He intentionally opened the path for a headlong rush to ram another nominee down our throats before the balance of power in the Senate could shift in the midterm elections. Mitch McConnell, seen so recently beaming over his contribution to the Muslim ban decision, was equally as gleeful about pushing the nomination of a new justice forward. It was he who had stolen the justice appointment by stonewalling Merrick Garland’s nomination and he’s happy to shephard this newest opening along while Congress remains in session this summer for the sake of the party and the Trump base. He’s hoping to reclaim some ground on his dismally low party approval rating. Trump has had the list in waiting, courtesy of the Federalist Society, a Koch Brothers funded legal club that resulted from their decision to create an alternative constitutional law philosophy, “originalism” and educate proponents who could later populate the legal system. Those Koch brothers are nothing if not thorough in their seizure of the government; not a single branch was excluded.

It’s not as if court decisions haven’t been going their way over the last couple of years, through 4 to 4 ties and the new 5 to 4 majority. Most recently, in addition to the Muslim ban, the attack on public sector employees unions, which will finally allow unions to wither away and with them, their at least theoretical support of the Democratic Party. Employees in unionized workspaces have been required to pay union dues; after all, they all receive the benefits negotiated in the contract. The exceptions are the over 25 states that have passed right-to-work laws, more conservative movement handiwork. In right-to-work states, only members are required to pay dues.

However, part of the dues also pay for union political activities, including lobbying and electoral campaign activities. In the past, SCOTUS had ruled that members were not required to pay for political activities. Typically, though, state employees had been paying full membership dues, since the fees were only about 20%, giving the unions significant financial resources. This most recent court decision reversed the previous one, abolishing mandatory payment of union dues. This essentially makes every state a right-to-work state.

Public employee unions have been a target of conservatives intent on cutting government expenditures and lowering taxes. Conservatives have been working at the state level to pass right-to-work legislation as they have taken control of more and more state legislatures. As union members have become increasingly conservative, it seems counterintuitive that the politics of their leadership to retain jobs and hold onto benefits was more politically unpalatable to members than allegiance to lower taxes and smaller government. Perhaps, they are willing to sacrifice their salaries and jobs for a higher political purpose. Or they’re just suckers for conservative propaganda. Conservative groups have been running campaigns encouraging members to drop out of their unions. In efforts to further weaken the unions, they are also filing lawsuits to retroactively recover dues collected from non-members, further diminishing union coffers. One bright note, recent demonstrations by teachers in West Virginia and Oklahoma suggests that teachers are now “woke” to the travesty of state legislators, for whom many had voted, studiously slashing state budgets. They seem not to have not fully appreciated what it would do to their working conditions and their students.

Other Supreme Court decisions this term were the refusal to make a decision on partisan gerrymandering, keeping those districts intact for the upcoming midterms; districts where GOP majorities were created when they are in fact the minority of votes casts. There was also affirmation of the Texas redistricting plan which makes a mockery of one-man-one-vote. There was the victory of the master cake baker who is free to refuse to bake wedding cakes for gay couples who can still buy cupcakes in his shop, if any want to patronize it at all. He’s probably got a surge of business from the holier-than-thou crowd.

In addition, the court confirmed the right of pregnancy crisis centers to masquerade as medical facilities, without any medical staff involved. They mislead women about the risks of pregnancy, which has a higher incidence of maternal complications and death than abortion. They manufacture risks associated with abortion which are contrary to the best scientific evidence. And most importantly, they provide limited information about the choices open to pregnant women in determining their own course; specifically they can’t mention the A word. To transform an issue of health safety into one of free speech is to further compromise the health of pregnant women in the country with the highest maternal mortality rate among the developed nations and higher than many underdeveloped ones. Isn’t that why health professionals and facilities have to be licensed?

There is still the alternative for charging each facility under California statues against practicing medicine without a license, a rather time consuming and costly undertaking at the discretion of the prosecuting attorney in each location. that’s one thing about judges who used to be lawyers; there are always finding ways to generate more income for their colleagues at the cost of more tax dollars.

And thus we start another dark chapter in the Supreme Court’s history where corporations will reign supreme, much as in the early 20th century Gilded Age; where civil rights for minorities, victims of the justice system, the LGBTQ community will be trampled. The slow progress toward equal status for women is likely to be halted and reversed. Protections for workers and consumers are likely to go down in flames as are environmental protections. And prayers are likely to wind their way back into schools and public meetings. How long it takes is simply a matter of how fast the conservative pipeline can generate the cases.

But first up will be further assaults on women’s’ reproductive rights. The anti-abortion, better termed forced childbirth movement, still a minority in this country, has been licking it chops in anticipation of this opportunity for Trump to nominate an anti-abortion judge. This has been the beacon of evangelical support for the Pussy-Grabbing President, so antithetical to Christian values. He promised to do it. Clearly, in his disdain for the judiciary, he has the creation of a partisan Supreme Court in mind. Forced childbirth forces are queuing up in state legislature to make abortion illegal, hoping to fast track their way to a SCOTUS reversal of Roe v Wade and further add to maternal mortality. Kirsten Gillibrand has even suggested that there will be a wave of laws criminalizing abortion. Who says we can’t find our way back to barbary, just as countries like Ireland have decided to come into the light of women’s rights.

And yet, this is just the tip of the justice iceberg. 45 has been nominating the most ridiculous candidates, like one without any trial or even deposition experience, an another indicator of his disdain for the justice system, so aptly expressed in his remark about appointing hundreds of new judges to deal with immigrants caught up in “zero-tolerance”, “Can you imagine the [amount of] corruption [they represent]?” Wannabe autocrats are always disdainful of the courts, accusing them of corruption when the ruler is merely frustrated by the thwarting his will. It’s the groundwork they lay before suspending citizen protections under the law. There are still hundreds of federal judgeships open for the Trump administration to appoint, the combined result of multiple retirements and GOP hindrance of federal bench appointments during the Obama administration. These appointments will shape the courts where the majority of cases are heard for decades to come. The approach of the Justice Department under Jeff Sessions to pursue cases that favor the Trump base, not just conservative christians but also corporate interests, and its willful intent to deny equal protections to those not so favored, mean that the civil rights initiatives of the previous administration will cease. The DOJ has already switched sides in a number of cases from opponent to proponent, even down to trying to undo consent decrees signed by a number of municipalities to change discriminatory policing practices.

Who could have guessed that Putin has left a stain or two on our high court?

Is there anything that can halt this train? Doubtful. But anything can happen. Certainly, no one could have predicted that McConnell’s strategy would have landed us in this place. At most, it was seen as a delaying tactic, although it certainly provided a campaign issue that resonated with evangelicals and other forced childbirthers, helping enhance the “lifestyle” voter turnout for a proud confessed misogynist. But most people, even Republicans and Trump himself, believed that Hillary Clinton would be nominating the next Supreme Court Justice. However, unseen hands were at work: right wing propagandists, social media bots and memes, commercial press bias, Russian agents attempting to groom Trump campaign aides including Donald Jr, Russian agents masquerading as Americans who organized Trump rallies. And so, we ushered in the reign of the RealityTV President with the unintended fallout that Putin has left a stain or 2 on our high court.

Chuck Schumer made a valiant attempt at his best McConnell imitation, demanding that the GOP delay a vote on any justice nomination until after the midterm elections. It seemed diminutive. The Democrats have no real power to stop the Republicans from confirming whomever they nominate; even with John McCain still ill at home, the party has the 50 votes, including Pence if they all fall in line with party discipline.  Sure, they can fight skirmishes in committee to delay, but that’s child’s play.

Of course, Trump, choosing to go his own way, could nominate someone  incompletely vetted and/or wholly inappropriate that even emasculated Senators couldn’t get behind. Failing that, attention will be focused on Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, Republican Senators from Alaska and Maine who have supported women’s reproductive rights in the past. Will the party leadership be able to persuade them with some inducement, perhaps a juicy project for their state constituents or will they be able to resist the pressure? Recalling John McCain and the ACA repeal and replace bill, stranger things have happened.

I have little hope that Americans will find a way to do the right thing to get through the mess in which we find ourselves. After all, they are the reason we got here in the first place, whether through dereliction of civic duty or failure to understand the panorama of issues rather than take their Facebook friends’ gossip and spread it around. Let’s hear it for internet source literacy! Despite current protest demonstrations, the hand wringing and the mobilizations around new political candidates, alternatives to the tried and true solutions to our problems are missing. We are in an age of technological revolution and yet, government still plods along on the ideas of the 1920s and 1940s, recycled by the right to allow industrialists to take advantage of men and women workers and natural resources and the left to support the politics of FDR without the overtly racist implementation. Where are new solutions that are not rooted in the historic injustices of the past so often whitewashed and unacknowledged by the writing of history through a soft focused lens? It took years of demonstrating and many cracked heads to get a Voting Rights Act, now essentially dormant and the Equal Rights Act that outlawed discrimination in public places, housing and employment. It took decades after that to get a modicum of compliance which even now is incomplete and being rescinded. School systems are even more segregated now than they were in the 1990s. How many decades of bashed heads, AIDS deaths and demonstrations did it take for members of the LGBTQ community to join the anti-discrimination protections of equal rights laws and to marry like everyone else? And yet, the reign of “religious freedom” is forcing the extreme views of that small minority on the country’s majority, from ejecting transgender persons from the military and the DOJ exclusion of the LGBTQ community from protection under equal rights laws and stupid bathroom bills to male-only prayer meetings in the White House, led by the Vice President.

The prevailing wisdom is that a nation is at its most generous to its minorities, both racial and economic, when the economy is booming. That is not our future. While there may be an economic boom underway, and that is questionable, it will not be a boom for everyone. As the saying goes, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. We can add, the middle is getting poorer too. There is nothing in the administration’s outlook other than to spread the misery among the lower 90%, a gap that is widening as the top 10% curry their privileges to pass onto to their progeny while everyone else is left to claw their way up as exceptions.

The opening shots of 45’s trade wars have launched a cannonball against the intricate connections of global supply chains. The agricultural industry will suffer, manufacturers, particularly small and middle size companies will have their businesses shattered, leaving more people out of work than new jobs created. Most of those dumb f***ks who supported Trump still do; they just think he should maybe change some of the specifics which include excluding their products from tariffs. And American consumers will be asked to shell more out of their pockets, already spare from stagnant wages, nonexistent employee benefits, ever escalating medical costs, and unaffordable housing. If the Disruptor-in-Chief sold voters on a nightmare scenario that did not exist before he entered office, he seems hell bent on making it happen, in the way only a TV producer can.

Trump is feeling so good about his most recent diversion from the issues involved in the Mueller investigation that he’s arranging an upcoming summit with his Moscow benefactor

And while we’re bombarded with news about rudeness toward administration officials and reacting to the horrors at the southern border, the RealityTV President has turned the narrative away from corruption in his administration, his wanton disregard of due process and the ongoing investigation into Russian influence in his campaign and interference in the election. He’s feeling so good about his diversion, that he’s moving ahead to plan a summit with his benefactor, Vladimir Putin. trump-putin-image-2Putin certainly played his cards well; the edifice of the longest standing democracy is crumbling. He’s got Trump disrupting NATO alliances and the European Union; he’s got Trump disrupting international trade because Russia can’t compete economically with the EU, USA or China. He’s got the leader of the Free World pulling his tail between his legs and slinking away from our role of global leadership, waiting in the wings to fill in the vacuum before China boxes him out. Putin’s vision to expose democracy as weak and untenable is moving along on pace. There’s no telling what he can wangle out of his protege in an upcoming summit.

In the Dealmaker-in-Chief’s bold move toward a summit, he has dared Congress to protest. In fact, he’s sent his congressional minions out to continue the attack on the FBI and the Assistant Attorney General in order to pry their way into the guts of Mueller’s investigation. They are trying to build their counteroffensive of misinformation, half-truths, innuendo and conspiracy theories in anticipation of the Mueller report. Thus Representatives Jim Jordan and Trey Gowdy speechified their attacks launched at Rob Rosenstein in a Congressional hearing preceding the vote by the full House to demand release of FBI files to the committee, all orchestrated before they heard a word from Rosenstein’s mouth. A show trial in the best tradition of Joseph McCarthy.

The risk for Trump here is a returned focus to the Russia investigation, but public opinion to suspend the Mueller investigation has been building to 50% and the CelebrityPresident is hoping to cash in on the wave of enthusiasm over an upcoming Supreme Court pick, to push him toward a majority of the public opposing Mueller. The press is way to distracted by breaking events to get back to the issue of defending the country against a real enemy, Moscow, rather than the hordes of unarmed immigrants attacking our border. It’s typical of a dotard like 45 to make the country secure against a nonexistent threat and fall flaccid in the face of a well armed foe. He’s gambling, but that’s what he does. And he’s on a pretty good winning streak.

No Morals, No Service

img_27911Last week brought news of spontaneous pushback to “zero tolerance” and child separations from immigrant parents at the southern border. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was asked to leave the Red Hen restaurant after her party had been served their cheese plates. Employees voted not to serve her because of her role in “an inhumane and unethical administration”. The appetizers were free, sparing the restaurant from dealing with her contaminated money (although, it is our tax dollars).

Stephen Miller was called a “real-life fascist” while dining in a Mexican Restaurant and Kristjen Nielsen voluntarily left a Mexican restaurant when confronted with customers protesting her unjust policies. I guess neither likes the Mexicans who cook Mexican fare, but they’re into eating it. Perhaps, there are some things that undesirable immigrants bring that even white supremacists can enjoy and culturally appropriate.

Sarah HuckaSanders played innocent in her tweet: “Her actions say far more about her than about me. I always do my best to treat people, including those I disagree with, respectfully and will continue to do so.” If her behavior is some version of respect, her definition is the polar opposite of Webster’s. It strains credibility that she thinks declaring the press an “enemy of the state” is her idea of respecting differences. If she thinks her snarky daily assaults on the press are respectful, what then is her behavior toward those she holds in disdain? Does she really think that lying to the American people on a daily basis, in essence her job description, is respectful of Americans. In reality, her tweet is a perfect reflection of who she is, a person who is ready to say whatever in service of her god, Donald Trump. Hours earlier, Sarah had tweeted a photo of a supposed MS-13 member with thecaption, “Nancy Pelosi introduces her campaign committee for the take back of the House.” Forever claiming victimhood from the Left, she’s claiming the white supremacist high ground which is akin to sinking in quicksand. She’s a Christian from the Southern tradition of enslavement.

Restaurant ejection has not been our usual etiquette, but then conservatives have made it their mission to abandon norms and upend civility.

Restaurant ejection has not been our usual etiquette, but then conservatives have made it their mission to abandon norms and upend civility. Republicans contend that their public servants should have private time away from the job. Sarah might be having dinner with her family, but she’s doing administration propaganda 24-7; when else would she be tweeting? Progressives are angry and frustrated enough to break into spontaneous demonstrations because they know DC ain’t listening; not 45, not the House, not the Senate.

We are busting out all over with fury against the tyranny of the minority. It feels like there is no stopping the decline of the republic into something completely unrecognizable. In fact, the republic has already evolved into an oligarchy, now verging on kleptocracy. We have watched it happen, sold down the river to the Kochtopus cabal long before the Citizens United Supreme Court decision added the final nail in the coffin. (Citizens United was of course initiated and financed by Koch organizations). Now the pace is accelerating rapidly with expanded attacks on due process, made large in the treatment of Spanish speaking immigrants using the argument that due process doesn’t apply to everyone. That has long been true for African Americans, and now it’s moved on to other groups – Muslims and Hispanic immigrants. While Americans have in the past been happy to surrender due process of others in war and times of crises, we are in no such period now, except as the RealityTVPresident as imagined it into being with the help of Fox State TV and conservative media wonks. But that’s how it has worked in other places and other times. Who’s next? No one yet knows.

Judge Janene has outdone herself in her response. “What happened to civil discourse?” she asked. She and her pals blew it up. For a commentator who routinely indulges in vulgar name calling rather than reasoned argument, her comments are not ironic, they are disingenuous. In actuality, she works an emotional palette, digging deep into conscious and unconscious biases smattered with tenuous conspiratorial links, void of factual support or logic. She’s betting her audience has sworn off facts, analytical thinking or investigation and that they will choose her interpretation instead. Hers is but a variant on the running Fox topic of the day, reinforcing the gospel according to Fox. She too plays the conservative victim, of a Left wing conspiracy to destroy “their” way of life; the one that allows a squawker to live a luxury lifestyle while her viewers are trying desperately to hold on to their mobile home.

And yet these spontaneous restaurant actions are validation of what conservatives believe: they’re being discriminated against. They are martyred and confirmed at the same time. In their martyrdom, there is room for their brand of discrimination, perhaps because it flows in their minds from the absolute that has been handed down by God or some similar authority. Is ejecting Sara H the same as refusing to bake a cake for a gay couple’s wedding? The latter is ok by them because it is sacred, but the former is an affront to their sensibilities. The best rights are the ones you can claim only for yourselves.

Did the Red Hand owner have a right to eject Sara H from her restaurant because Sara is hurting the country, or at least, her staff felt so. They had the right but the ethics here are muddy. It feels like a slippery slope. I like Michelle Obama’s “When they go low, we go high”. We want our political movement to embody the values we hold. A problem with principles comes in when it comes down to the level of individual interaction. Can we condone discrimination based on political belief? Nope, we can not embrace discrimination of any kind.

But personal confrontation is not the only avenue to think politically in the financial realm. We must find our own way in the commercial landscape. How about giving up Chik-Fil-A? And Amway, the golden goose that feeds the DeVos family fortunes and political action organizations? For those lucky enough to be saving in retirement funds, look at where your money is investigated; think no oil & gas companies, gun manufacturers. You may not hurt them with your individual investments, but at least you can feel better about yourself for making a statement. You may also be sacrificing higher rates of return.

We gotta drive and so we have to buy gasoline. Plastics are in everything. In any case, conservative mega-donors are well insulated and fairly untouchable. You can stop buying Brawny paper towels, but Georgia Pacific, among Koch industries, won’t experience even a pin prick. They already have more money than they know what to do with and its invested to keep growing itself.

There is still the ballot box and of course progressives and those who believe we’re on the wrong path must organize and all vote in every election and bring a friend or two to boot. But the oligarchs have worked hard to rig that process as well: voter disenfranchisement, voter roll purges, voter ID laws, gerrymandering, state legislatures and governors bought and paid for are but a few of their ways. And then there is the political propaganda machine that has proven so successful, greased with big donor money, PACs and “social organizations” that fund demonstrations and political action organizations, sometimes little more than a PO box. And if they don’t get the electorate wound up to their desired result, their fallback is a bet on power corrupts. Principles can be amended to correlate with the idea that staying in office is more important than any individual vote.

This is why we feel so powerless. Americans are being squeezed in a vise by a non-responsive government beholden to a small group of fat cats who have rigged the system to remain in power. But what else is there left to do but struggle as hard as we can? Without struggle, we are doomed.

Let the Children Cry

 

Steve Bannon must be beaming with pride that his Donny Boy is closing the border and stopping  the people of color who dare to come into his country and dream his white dream. His most recent campaign to rip children of all ages, even suckling babies, from their parents has generated quite a whirlwind. But it is Jefferson Beauregard Sessions who deserves all the credit. He has fashioned his strategy at the DOJ over months to carry out his own mission to make America White Again, a deeply held belief from his early days as white supremacist. He was working the immigration shutdown issue during his days in the Senate, assisted by his staffer, like minded Steven Miller. Reportedly, it was a Sessions idea to arrest everyone without proper papers who crossed the border and as chief enforcer of the country’s laws, it must have made sense to presidential advisers. 

“Millions are pouring over our borders. Make America great by securing our borders”

The BullyPresident began building his case during his 2016 campaign when he sold his dark vision of a nation under siege from an onslaught of poor Mexican immigrants. In his vision, these unarmed people were like Attila the Hun who overran Europe, pillaging, raping. murdering and threatening citizens with lawlessness. That is, of course, a false narrative. Mexican border crossings have been falling over a decade and the origin of immigrants has shifted to Central Americans.

In his most recent statements, the RealityTV President has stealthy delivered his message in typical dog-whistle fashion. “They’re sending their worst” is one of his favorite tag-lines. Who’s the “they”? Of course, immigration is an individual decision without government involvement, if foreign governments are the “they” he’s talking about. But his supporters don’t ask any questions. His statement, “The US will not be a migrant camp or immigrant holding area”, is intended to evoke images of migrant camps in Lebanon and Turkey, teeming with brown and Black skinned Muslims and equally as important, terrorists that threaten the country’s national security. “The country is going to be overrun with millions of people,” Trump said later. Those words amplify his message in order to induce high national anxiety, like pressing a hot button to launch a nuke.

As a corollary, administration spokespersons and state-TV network Fox have continued to disparage asylum seekers as dishonest. Their “news” charges that unrelated adults use children to sneak into the country with nefarious intent, like child and drug trafficking or a range of unspeakable crimes against white people. They are given scripts from their “professional” lawyers (Trump’s term) to say what they need to get asylum. (It would be great if most immigrants, especially children, had attorneys to represent them in immigration courts but sadly, they don’t.) People are being rounded up by traffickers solely for financial gains.  The undertones always imply a white supremacist infused air of superiority to these immigrants who are just poor Mexicans (they don’t have time to distinguish countries of origin) who will suck resources out of this country that rightly belong to white Americans. One has to believe in these spokespersons sincerity; otherwise, they are simply hacks desperate to keep their faces on TV or videos to keep their pockets lined with huge amounts of cash and the attendant limelight that comes with it. To them, these are not people with a legitimate fear for their lives, threatened with murder, torture and rape; that’s the kind of threat that launches people on a perilous journey over hundreds of miles through inhospitable terrain as their only hope for survival, despite the huge odds against being granted asylum. For these people there is no choice.

The messages of Fox and like minded media jocks play well with the Trumpophants, if not the majority of Americans, at least we hope not. Still, Americans continue to prove their vulnerability to misinformation, happy to have their worldview shaped by Trump-state TV, which has tuned into the panorama of prejudices that have long plagued white citizens in this country. A lie off repeated becomes real.

For the record, there were a total of 300,00 thousand immigrants last year. There are currently about 400 asylum seekers per month. In the case of the Mexican border, there were 55% more border apprehensions, considered the best measure of immigration available; both March and April had 3 times more than comparable months last year. These numbers are low by historical standards. In 2000, there were 275,000, down to 160,000 in 2006, 60,000 in 2010 and 25,000 in 2016, an astounding 11 fold drop. Keep in mind that despite the fall in numbers, by 2013, the US was spending more on immigration enforcement than on the FBI, Secret Service, DEA and all other federal criminal law enforcement agencies combined. These efforts resulted in holding more people in immigration detention than those serving sentences in the federal prison system. This is why, ICE often leases space in underutilized federal prisons.

“zero-tolerance is just the latest step in anti-immigration policies being reinvented over the last 9 months.

With constant rhetorical infusions from Trump rallies and tweets, the administration has ratcheted up its game over the previous months. It has been laying the groundwork for “zero-tolerance” and child separations for months. In the winter of 2017, the administration eliminated a claim of abuse, and abandonment for adolescents 18-21 as the basis for asylum and rescinded previous approvals. In March 2018, when children turned 18, a new policy was begun of transferring them from the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR) to ICE custody where they would be held in adult prisons. In addition, Sessions began routing a number of cases to himself for personal review which included reconsidering old decisions by the Board of Immigration Appeals. He uniformly denied all cases.

trump_sessions_cartoonIn April 2018, ICE adopted a policy of background checks on potential sponsors of ORR children with the implications that undocumented parents or relatives would be detained. The old criteria had revolved around determining the safety of the home. This policy was instituted to make relatives fearful of volunteering to care for their own children, creating another dilemma for families with children in the US: risk being deported and being separated from your children here or leave your child in the care of others, or possibly ORR facilities. ORR historically has been responsible for older children, largely coming as unaccompanied minors. Their policy was to try to release minors to the care of a family member, preferably a parent. Children were held temporarily while finding an appropriate sponsor for the period during which they moved through the immigration process which could be years. Only a small proportion of ORR held minors remained in custody.

This spring also saw the Administration terminate the Central American Minors Program which had allowed children to apply for refugee status from their own countries before making the journey. When it was abruptly ended, the program, begun in 2014, left more than 4000 children already in the application process without even a chance for an interview.

In May 2018, Sessions ended administrative closure of cases by immigration court judges and limited adjudication on humanitarian grounds, restricting judges’ ability to use collegial review to ascertain elements of the child’s case. Under “administrative closure”, cases could be removed from a judge’s docket and the decision about deportation delayed. This practice allowed cases to be resolved at a later date while bringing new cases into the system for adjudication. Sessions is moving to open up what he sees as roadblocks in his deportation assembly line. These over 215,000 cases closed between October 2011 and September 2017, if reopened, would create a massive overload in already crowded immigration courts, so the logistics remain to be worked out. But Sessions has said that DHS could request specific cases to be placed on court calendars allowing them to target specific individuals.

Sessions also announced that domestic violence and abuse as well as gang violence were no longer acceptable bases for asylum claims. Recognizing domestic violence and abuse was a hard fought victory only 4 years ago. This is yet another step backward for women in an administration so infused with the rights of men to perpetrate violence on women. Could it be otherwise, when the Pussy-Grabber-in-Chief, a long time #MeToo perpetrator sits at its head? And if one lives in a location where gangs are the law, so strong that they can easily kill government officials, is that not a reason for asylum? Is that not the basis for Iraqis, particularly American collaborators and Syrian asylum seekers, substituting civilian militia, or local chieftains or terrorists? Oh, I forgot, those people are banned from immigrating because of their Muslim religion.

In May 2018, Kirstjen Nielsen announced all immigrants crossing the border would be charged criminally, requiring that children be separated as the parent was detained to face criminal proceedings and served their sentence. No criminal gets to take his child to jail; no one would wish that, Nielsen intoned. Parents are now being prosecuted for crossing the border without authorization. Crossing the border is a federal misdemeanor, as pointed out by Samantha B’s Full Frontal, similar to misusing the image of Smokey the Bear or wearing the American Flag as apparel, a law routinely violated by MAGA supporters. It is worth noting that immigrants illegally entering the country have only been charged, not convicted, as in innocent until proven guilty. Elsewhere in the criminal system, people charged with a minor misdemeanor are eligible for bail before trial if not simply released to pay a fine. Most of the immigrants do have a valid defense, i.e. seeking asylum from persecution at home. Seeking asylum is a legally protected right under US law. But in the past, illegal immigrants had been charged with civil rather than criminal violations. This, then, was the set up for operation “zero-tolerance”.

At this point, it is worth adding some background on policies governing detention of illegal immigrants under past administrations. The TVPRA (Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2008) was meant to give safety to victims of human trafficking, provided that unaccompanied children “are exempt from prompt return to their home country” unless they come from Canada or Mexico. It is applicable to children from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Sessions has employed this law in his quest to discourage new asylum seekers; kids, once isolated from their parents, become reclassified as “unaccompanied” and thus subject to ORR custody.

Much has been made of the Flores settlement  from 1997, a legal agreement under the Clinton administration that requires the federal government to release rather than detain undocumented immigrant children, first to their parent if possible, or to other adult relatives. If no relatives are available, they could be placed in licensed programs willing to accept custody. As a last resort, US officials must place children in the “least restrictive” setting available. A federal judge in California ruled in 2015 that Flores covered all children in the custody of immigration officials, regardless of whether they were captured at the border alone or with family members and further, that it applied to any accompanying parents. But the application of the rule to parents was later  reversed, meaning that government is required to keep immigrant children and parents together only for a limited time but can’t since the children can not be held for more than 20 days by court decision. So children were released with their parents, the optimal caregivers from ORR’s perspective and told to return for court dates. Individuals returned to court with varying degrees of compliance.

The “zero tolerance” policy brought changes to an already overburdened immigration system. There was a more than one year backlog of asylum cases. The judges were under orders to rapidly turn over cases. The vast majority of petitioners in immigration courts have no attorney; that includes children of all ages even toddlers who have no court appointed guardian or an adult accompanying them. Children are left to adjudicate their asylum cases on their own; some are too young to speak, but most can’t explain the political basis of their asylum claim. Even infants can be sent back to their home country and turned over to officials there. Basically, the judge asks a couple of questions in English, translated into Spanish. Questions are answered with the kind of limited exposition elementary school aged children can muster and five minutes later the judge rejects the petition and the child is on their own on the other side of the border.

But the advent of mandatory prosecutions has layered thousands of immigrants onto an already beleaguered court system. Parents must serve out their criminal sentences before being turned over to ICE custody. In a video of a recently conducted mass criminal trial of 85 defendants, processed under the recently begun Operation Streamline, 85 men and women were sentenced to time served, generally a day or two. Some were scheduled for deportation. Parents had not been told where their children are or how to communicate with them. Because ICE and ORR have no communication system set up, there is no way to track the whereabouts of separated children systematically.   

Because of the increased number of children now in custody, the Border Patrol is holding  them for several days before transfer to ORR in what is commonly known as iceboxes (hieleras), overly air conditioned holding rooms, crowded and without beds, showers or anything to do. These rooms were designed for brief, less than 24 hour detentions of adults. The media has been full of stories showing children in “cages”, large empty concrete floored areas separated by chain-linked fences where children are moved from the hieleras. ICE has been disturbed by the cage designation; maybe fenced pens like those used for animals is more to their liking.

One other consequence of the limited number of facilities is that border guards are refusing to allow entry to those crossing at points of entry seeking asylum. “The inn’s all full up”. This, too, is a violation of international laws. Often, those asylum seekers then decide to cross the border in areas adjacent to ports of entry, taking the chance that they will be able to submit their claims once they are on US soil. Instead, as they surrender to the nearest border patrol person, they are summarily arrested, charged with illegal entry, whisked off to detention centers and separated from their children. It should be noted that by ICE statistics, only about 80% of cases are currently being prosecuted, but the stated goal is 100%.

Thus far, nothing in these circumstances requires the separation policy or prosecution. It is not, as the administration wants us to believe, a question of enforcing the law. Throughout the criminal justice system, prosecution of all laws is at the discretion of the prosecutor, just as enforcement is the purview of law enforcement officials. Prosecutors are the sole determiners of the pursuit of any given case; they are not required to provide an explanation for decisions and generally don’t. It is almost impossible to hold them accountable for their actions, because the public does not have access to the information unless the information is disclosed in indictments. Similarly, targeted enforcement of speed limits is the rule, as almost every driver knows about speeding or driving after a drink. Most of us are lucky enough not to get caught. 

Trump has shown that he is devoid of empathy, exemplified in one instance by tossing rolls of paper towels at Puerto Ricans struggling to rebuild following the devastating Hurricane Maria. His self aggrandizing remarks praising the US emergency response in his infamous “saying it is will make it so” style ignored the woeful inadequacy of FEMA and military efforts. A normal president would have extended his sympathy, apologized for the delayed response and vowed to speed up recovery efforts.

45’s announced doctrine of international relations to ignore human rights issues,  was put to use in his failure to mention or discuss them with international leaders and supported in his lavish praise of dictators who employ police brutality, prison camps and murder to maintain their regimes. He’s implemented that doctrine at home in the administration’s wanton disregard for civil rights in ICE raids, lack of due process in immigration proceedings, continuing support of discriminatory policing policies and judicial practices and the assault on transgender personnel in the armed forces. But, this “zero tolerance” policy at the border has broken new ground in cruelty, resembling the policies of 45’s dictator idols. His most recent step, delivered undercover of the media furor over child separations, is the withdrawal of the US from the UN Council on Human Rights apply demonstrating 45’s attempts to disrupt international institutions and chart a course for American isolation from the global community.

The US joins North Korea, Iraq and Eritrea as the only other non-participatory countries in the UN Council on Human Rights. A staunch representative of Trump-speak, Nikki Haley couldn’t resist an uncivil rant against a bit of fictionalized history on the way out. Accusing the Council of being anti-Israel after 5 recent votes, Haley characterized it’s hostility toward Israel as “clear proof that the council is motivated by political bias, not by human rights.” She went on to say, “If the Human Rights Council is going to attack countries that uphold human rights and shield countries that abuse human rights, then America should not provide it with any credibility.” Hogwash! Israel, a country known to ruthlessly attack and kill Palestinians as well as use torture and commit assassinations and commando raids in other’s sovereign territory, is hardly a bastion of human rights. But even Israel has not yet to jump ship, albeit, a less significant move on the world stage.

But unlike those he emulates, the Fox-and-Friends President has been reticent to own his policy in an uncharacteristic break from his braggadocio. This is clearly a part of his propaganda campaign to use the plight of separated children as a political bargaining chip to force Democrats into compromising with Republicans to pass legislation that will fund his border wall (he is less concerned about immigration policy except a Sessions-Stephen Miller desire to reduce overall immigration by 50% and “shut the southern border down”).  The Dealmaker-in-Chief is known to play hard ball, at least in verbiage, in his public approach to the negotiating table. He’s said that it’s everyone’s fault but his. It’s the Democrats fault; we have to follow the imaginary laws that the Democrats made; the Democrats have obstructed legislation that would solve the immigration issues, etc. Make no mistake: the same party controls the House, Senate, and chief executive branch of the government, the historic configuration that gets things done. 45, through his attorney general, changed the enforcement policies, yet he is now too flaccid to insert a change. In truth, he didn’t actually need to sign anything.

Then poof, by proclamation on June 20th, 45 proclaimed an end to a policy of separation of children from their parents that he himself initiated. With the stroke of a pen, he fixed a problem that hadn’t existed before he created it. We must be leery of his intentions here. Is this an action to demonstrate his power, in the “I alone can fix it” tradition?

However, in the process, he has certainly tripped up his spokespeople like Kirstjen Nielsen who maintained that Homeland has no new policy, it is simply enforcing the law, because this is a nation of laws, even while her boss has frequently envisioned himself as someone above the law. There was no choice unless America wanted open borders. She chimed in that only Congress could fix the problem by changing the law. She, of course, was out of step with Jefferson Beauregard, who insisted he was breaking new ground in resolving the problem of immigration, and others like John Kelley who insisted that the purpose of separation of families was to act as a deterrent to future immigration.

Certainly, the BullyPresident will use his executive action in his midterm electioneering as a sledgehammer against an impotent Congress. “Vote out those bastards who interfere with my reign!” Is that threat enough to kick Congress to act as an independent second branch of government without worrying about passing legislation that is acceptable to the Oval office?

Congress itself was reeling from surprise over the president’s action, just as they were caucusing to come up with some legislation to deal with child separations, appropriations for the Wall, DACA, and restricting legal immigration, a potpourri that can only stir up a slurry of clashing beliefs unlikely to result in a passable piece of legislation for Ryan to call up for a vote in the House. Trump said he would be working through Congress for a comprehensive immigration bill but his record of success with Congress has been pretty dismal, except in the case of the windfall tax cut bill for businesses and the wealthy. The cruelty inherent in the use of innocent, traumatized children as a political tool is akin to that of ISIS fighters using children to shield themselves from attacking forces.

mexican-wallBut that is the executive action as propaganda weapon. Trump’s executive orders are always great as talking points, but generally short on action. What will this order do? First, it will keep “zero tolerance” at the border in place. The plan will allow families to be detained together while awaiting prosecution, although this may run afoul of the 1997 court rulings on the 20 day duration of child detentions. One possible response would be to fast track hearings on cases, which would then be done for the whole family rather than each member individually. But unless there are wholesale denials of asylum requests, not out of the question, given the narrowing of qualification criteria, some disposition would have to be formulated for the already backlogged asylum process before the launch of “zero-tolerance”.

Still, the order qualifies keeping families together “to the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of appropriations”, a giant loophole, given the total capacity for ICE family detention centers is about 3000, 2600 of which were occupied on June 9th. A Washington Post story cites an administrative official who says the administration is preparing for court cases in hopes of overturning the Flores settlement and removing the limitation on duration of child detentions, a solution they feel is easier than getting a Congressional solution. Flores has long been a target of immigration hardliners since the ruling’s application to children. In fact, this may be the motivation for the executive order, to precipitate a new round of suits challenging the Flores restrictions on internment.

So where will “zero tolerance” warehousing of all these families lead? One alternative could be family internment camps, similar to those that held Japanese Americans during WWII, a practice Trump has hinted he supported. The idea for detention centers or tent cities may also have been inspired by one of Trump’s heroes, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a recent recipient of a Trump pardon for ignoring a federal mandate to cease and desist racial profiling. There seems to be some administration movement in using military bases for internment. If the cost of transportation weren’t so high, Guantanamo could prove useful. The government is paying to maintain it anyway. . . Just kidding, in case it gives Homeland any ideas.

The Trump executive action is only another reason to keep fighting against his administration. Detention for what could be years as families fight for asylum is not better, even if it were in the Plaza Hotel. It is nothing but inhumane. And what will happen to those already separated, estimated to be over 2000 young lives. There was no planning on unification of families; in many cases, judges deciding adult cases in mass hearings, are unaware that some adults brought children with them. There is no tracking of child placements; in some cases they are already in different states. For the youngest, it may even be difficult to determine who their parents are. One reporter, after visiting a facility for infants and toddlers saw 2 babies, dressed identically in orange suits who would be difficult to differentiate by anyone except parents or relatives. There is little interagency communication between ICE and ORR or to parents about their children’s whereabouts. The logistics of reunification are fraught with pitfalls, not the least of which is the time allotted to a parent before deportation. Mothers and fathers have been at least as traumatized as their children and swamped with despair.

It is imperative to keep a vigilant eye on the implementation phase of the executive order as well as new potentially surreptitious moves by these agencies in an administration that feels the obligation to be as opaque as gold coin. We can not rest in our demands that Congress and the administration become accountable for this most recent turn in US policy toward the dark side.

The news on this story is breaking almost faster any one can keep up with. On June 21,

-HHS asked the Pentagon to develop plans to house as many as 20,000 unaccompanied minors, e.g., those now separated from their parents. At the same time, Pentagon officials are assessing whether military bases can be used to house families as well in facilities in Texas and Arkansas. Potential sites are Fort Bliss, Goodfellow Air Force Base and Dyess Air Force Base, all in Texas and Little Rock Air Force Base in Arkansas. Defense Secretary Mattis has said that military bases have served to house people made homeless by earthquakes and hurricanes. The caveat here is that those were American citizens and in this government where noncitizens are considered both criminal and subhuman, it is difficult to conceive what their treatment will look like. Unlike the earthquake and hurricane victims, I’ll bet their confinement will come with barbed wire fences. And you thought the invocation of WWII Japanese-American internment camps was a bit over the top. I guess 45 misspoke when he said that the US will not become a migrant camp or immigrant holding area; it was just a bit of rhetorical flourish.

-The House delayed a vote on one of the other pending immigration bills as the hard-line bill  was defeated.

-The Justice Department has formally requested a federal judge to change the rules in detaining families caught at the border. This was step one in preparation for long term intermentment of immigrant families.

-Administration officials have made contradictory statements about suspension of prosecution of immigrants crossing the border. On the one hand the US Border Patrol said they would not be referring adults crossing the border for prosecution. Very quickly, Justice Department officials said the policy hasn’t changed. The question of prosecutorial discretion seems to be popping up. But a senior Border Patrol official shot back that their agents would not be referring immigrants traveling with children for prosecution until they could increase capacity at their holding facilities. Looks like they are waiting on the military bases.

-During the day, there have been sporadic reports from Texas that prosecutors unexpectedly dropped misdemeanor charges against 17 adults who crossed the border with their children. They are likely going to be placed in detention, but if and when they will be reunited with their children is unclear.

Washington and 8 other states announced that they will sue the Trump administration over the policy of separating immigrant families entering the US without proper documentation. New York had already announced a separate suit.

The Singapore Fling Became a Waltz

The Elegant Waltz

The summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un was an historic event. But, true to form, it was more about the show and a quick shot at raising Trump’s poll numbers with doubtfuls and independents. The staged photo op called to mind some of 45’s campaign sets: banks of US flags, but this time interspersed with North Korean ones.

So what does the agreement say?  In the initial paragraphs, the US committed to a guarantee of safety for the North Korean regime. Further, the document states that the US and North Korea commit to:

  1. Establish a new relationship
  2. Build a lasting and a stable “peace regime” on the Korean peninsula
  3. The DPRK (Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea) commits to “ work toward complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula
  4. Recover remains of  Korean War POWS and MIAs

We can drive a truck through the ambiguities in the agreement, the broadness of the statements make them nearly meaningless. Only the recovery of remains of war dead is concrete and even that can be limited by the effort invested in locating them. But for all the pomp and circumstance, there is nothing new here. All of these points have been agreed to in the past.

The commitment to better relations between the 2 countries resurfaces about every 5 or 6 years. In 1994, there was a pledge to exchange diplomatic liaison offices. In 2005, there was a diplomatic hotline and a commitment to work toward a declaration of peace to end the Korean War. The return of POW/MIA occurred routinely from 1999 to 2006, during the last thaw in US-DPRK relations. Currently, there are an estimated 2000 remaining. The commitment to work toward denuclearization is actually weaker here than previous agreements, even though those predated the actual acquisition of a nuclear bomb.

North Korea made similar commitments to denuclearization in the accords in 1994 and 2005. In the 1994 Agreed Framework, the country froze its plutonium production, submitting to verifiable inspections for 8 years. The Bush administration in 2005 extracted a commitment to “abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and returning at an early date to the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons” with International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. The term “denuclearization” itself was coined in the 1994 negotiations when the DPRK insisted that disarmament was a nonstarter. “Denuclearization” isolated nuclear weapons from conventional weapons, missiles and chemical/biological weaponry which were then subject to separate negotiations. And, the term’s vagueness allowed agreement through differing  interpretations by either side. The devil is in the details.

This is not a message you will hear from the Negotiator in Chief. His ignorance of history, desire for self promotion and desire to dissemble has led him to pronounce that this is an historic achievement that only he could have accomplished, unlike our bumbling presidents in the last 4 decades. After all, he’s got his eye on the Nobel. It seems he was more bamboozled than he realizes or wants to admit. There is much less in the Trump-Kim agreement than what has been hammered out by serious diplomatic efforts in the past, all of which have come to naught when the DPRK backed out.  

From global pariah to Singapore rock star

Kim Jong-Un for his part gave up nothing. He made a pinky swear to pursue denuclearization. North Korea has done that before and then ignored it, always playing for time to continue weapons development. The DPRK Chairman is clearly the mega winner. Most important is his elevated status in the world. He went from global pariah to rock star attracting crowds on the Singapore night club scene. He’s been welcomed in China and Russia. He stood as an equal with the President of the United States, DPRK flags flying with equal status to the Stars and Stripes. That is HUGE, and the hugeness can’t be overestimated.

Little Rocket Man achieved all that by building nuclear weapons. That’s the exclusive message that will roll across his population ad infinitum through his choke hold on the media. They say Trump conceded to his demands. North Korean media has already begun to present Kim’s priorities as first, better relations with the US, second, a stable peace on the peninsula and only third, denuclearization of the peninsula, which he believes includes US missiles, currently not present but portable by submarine and air force bombers. That’s a flip from Trump’s insistence that denuclearization is his highest priority.

Little Rocket Man has state run media; the MAGA President has Fox “News” to speak his truth. Both men are superior propagandists

The RealityTV President is not quite as well situated to put his “truth” out as his counterpart, but he’s closer to that than any previous president. Fox News is his channel flanked by a battery of conservative pundits and radio/internet jocks to spread the message. These are not only platforms for the Trump minions to repeat his themes in lock step, but the Fox all-stars rewind the themes 24-7. Fox “News” is of course a misnomer. Its pundits are more fiction writers than newsmen and women, crafting elaborate conspiracies from scraps of news for the entertainment of the masses. They even offer suggestions that the CelebrityPresident has enthusiastically embraced. The president speaks with Sean Hannity nightly and the administration has drawn a number of staff from the station. For their viewers, there is only the “truth” of Fox News. Trump depends on their ignorance for fertile ground to sow his own version of reality.

There were a number of items that went completely unmentioned. The short and long range intercontinental ballistic missiles launched over Japan and toward Hawaii, so important in Kim’s escalating campaign of intimidation that created the drama that triggered the summit. Biochemical weapons, like the neurotoxin Kim used to kill his half-brother, or cyberattacks, like the hack on Sony Pictures in retaliation for the release of the movie, “The Interview”. Certainly it’s no surprise that Trump demurred on the question of human rights, which is clearly not his thing, either at home or abroad. So limp is 45’s concern that in an interview with Voice of America he had a message for the North Korean people, “I think you have somebody [Kim] that has a great feeling for them. He wants to do right by them…” WOW!

Kim’s greatest achievement seems to be that he mesmerized Trump. So desperate is Trump to win the room, he hones in on those radiating the aura of power that he wants to supersede. This often leads him to identify with the most dictatorial and the most ruthless. He has been known to parrot his influencers, as seen from the rapid movement of a Fox and Friends story to his Twitter feed. It seems the Supreme Leader had a similar influence on 45. Following the conclusion of the summit, the Chief Executive announced that he wanted to stop joint US-South Korean military exercises, although this was not detailed in the written agreement. He characterized them as provocative, straight out of a North Korean propaganda script.

That is an abrupt turn about in US policy which has always maintained that the exercises are defensive, not aggressive. Trump, in thinking that the exercises are no big deal, seems unclear about military readiness. But this is not wordsmithing; 45 may be completely unaware of the significance in his remarks on US policy. In any case, he discards statements as easily as he attracts porn stars. In all likelihood, he won’t remember what he’s said as he is constantly reshaping his past to fit his present. Still, he doubled down with a follow up remark, doing Kim’s propaganda for him, by calling the exercises aggressive, and bemoaning the cost of sending planes from Guam to participate. Some things stick in his head better than others. Still, that’s no guarantee that it will come to pass. 

Certainly, he must understand how reassuring the exercises are to our South Korean ally, particularly as Moon Jae-in sees the Bully President beating up on its longest known allies in Europe. Apparently, the South Koreans were taken by surprise. If there’s nothing about this in the text of the agreement, we’ll never know what was said in the room, as both participants are supreme propagandists. It was an off the cuff throw away remark Trump made later. Apparently he surprised the Joint Chiefs as well.

Trump, in elaborating to the press later, heaped praise on Kim Jong-Un, his newest dictator pal, while continuing to dis our friends Canada and others in the G-7. Democracies don’t hold the same charm as dictators for the Donald.

All this agreeing has given China cover to continue to violate the global sanctions and actually ramp up trade that had been severely curtailed during recent name calling battles. Trump, as he is want to do, is celebrating before the work has begun. He pronounced the North Korean nuclear threat is over. That essentially eliminates any international pressure on the African countries with which the DPRK does a significant amount of its trading as well as Russia to honor sanctions. That’s another gift 45 bestowed.

So here we are again. This time is different. It started with the fanfare, rather than the grinding diplomatic negotiating that preceded the other agreements. We have to recognize the historical moment that Donald Trump is the first US president to meet with a DPRK Supreme Leader. The players are new. Kim Jong Un now already has nuclear bombs and is closing on a missile delivery system. He is in the strongest position that the Supreme Leader has ever been, which he can’t help but attribute to his nuclear weapons. It seems unlikely that he would be willing to let them go, after the years of sacrifice and the rewards they reaped. What will Trump concede in our name? First will come the details for setting the ground rules of the negotiations, down to who sits where and what shape the table will be. that will drag on for a while. But, both leaders are so mercurial that either could disrupt negotiations at any time. Still, however long the negotiations last, the threat of an accidental nuclear conflagration is much lower than it was a few months ago.

Surrender at the Singapore Corral

mushroom cloud

The prospect of complete denuclearization of North Korea and an end to the production of ICBMs and intermediate range missiles that threaten North Korea’s neighbors-South Korea, Japan, China and Russia to name the most immediate is awesome. For the opportunity to even pose the question to Kim Jong Un, we have to give kudos to 45, but not the Nobel Peace Prize just yet. We can question the process of antagonistic tweets and outright name calling as destructive of the reputation of the United States, but not 45 for whom this is an accepted norm. Hopefully, it will not become a norm for future US governments.

Kim and the Donald are equally adept at political leader lying and propaganda. But is Trump a match at the bargaining table? The DealmakerPresident has so far proved to be a dud. Having the megalomaniac, susceptible to adulation and flattery and hungering for approval in every room, at the table poses eminent danger. Bereft of any ethical or philosophical core, Trump has demonstrated his propensity to hold his own partisan political agenda uppermost in his transactional approach to negotiations. We have only to look at his bipartisan meetings with Democratic leaders on DACA and immigration policy to see that his minuscule fund of knowledge, desire for adulation and belief in his omnipotence led him to agree with Diane Feinstein and Chuck Schumer, much to the horror of his GOP legislators. The “I-could-shoot-a-man-on-Fifth-Avenue” President, believing himself impervious, was willing to “take the heat” from his base for a compromise on DACA. He didn’t have whisperer Steven Miller at his side to limit his concessions; it was only after Miller intervened that Trump corrected course and reversed his concessions. For 45, it was just a script correction to his reality TV presidency.

Both Moon Jae-in, South Korean president and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have tried to fill Trump’s head before he goes to Singapore with issues that are important to their countries, in hopes of having them filter into the negotiations, but 45 has a notoriously limp memory, overwhelmed by the presence of those immediately in front of his face. But beyond that, there is a real question of what issues should be put on the table. If denuclearization is the brass ring, the introduction of ancillary issues will only complicate and prolong the negotiations, much to Kim’s liking.

obama-and-abe

Shinzo Abe & Barack Obama at the Hiroshima Memorial

Among Japanese concerns are chemical and biological weapons, both of which have global importance and should be included in negotiations. Abe has also called for the removal of all missiles, not simply the cessation of missile production. He is rightfully worried that his concerns over the shorter range Korean missiles that can easily reach Japan will be sacrificed in an agreement that scraps only the long range missiles that target the US. This is well within the America First President’s playbook that cares only for credit with Trumpophants for safeguarding their country “under siege from the rest of the world” at the expense of US allies.

Certainly for Japan and human rights advocates, the discontinuation and release of Japanese citizens abducted over 4 decades is significant, but is that a topic that should hold up a treaty to eliminate nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula? Just as human rights in North Korea is a can of worms that will remain unopened. Increasingly, the MakeAmericaWhite President has little high ground on which to stand, only the most recent of which is the inhumane separation of children from parent(s) seeking asylum. Early on Trump stated that human rights is none of his concern, foreshadowing his entry into wanton disregard of civil rights at home and torture and genocide abroad.

Moon Jae-in has been jerked around in the lead up to the Singapore fling. He made the historically significant overtures that resulted in his meeting with Kim Jong Un in the DMZ that precipitated the opening salvoes in the off again-on again summit between Kim and Trump. Even as he demurred his role in deference to the Trump giant, going as far as suggesting a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for 45, he was unceremoniously left out of the process on the way to the negotiating table. Moon only found out about the cancellation of the summit after arriving in Seoul returning from Washington meetings where he had just discussed details of the proposed Singapore meeting. When Trump responded to Kim to reset the conference, while even praising him, his snub cast Moon as the lesser of the two Korean leaders.

Any missiles launched from North Korea and, for that matter any weapons, will have a devastating impact on the city of Seoul.

Obviously, Moon in South Korea has the most to lose. Seoul, with its 25.6 million residents, is just 40 miles south of the DMZ. Any missiles launched from North Korea and for that matter any weapons, will have a devastating impact on the city. In fact, South Korea, about the size of the area between LA and San Francisco, could be completely obliterated with multiple missile strikes in the absence of nuclear warheads. One would also think that the administration would have some concerns about 28,000 US troops stationed near the DMZ, although administration hawks have clearly worked out a “limited strike” on North Korea scenario that will willingly sacrifice those men and women. John Bolton, having never been in a military battle or served in the military, is all in on sacrificing people to his big mouth.

Still, the question of a peace treaty ending the Korean War also seems like another ancillary issue, better left to a separate negotiation that should include South Korea, now an independent democratic nation, unlike the country’s regime when the war was fought. Trump has conceded a willingness to discuss this issue, for whatever that’s worth. He characterized it as an easier issue to resolve than the nuclear question. Still, it would be a mistake to concede that before he gets a commitment from North Korea for disarmament. There is some speculation that Trump may want to conclude a peace treaty to relieve the US of its military and defense obligations to yet another ally, lowering the military budget and casting America Made Great more adrift from the complicated responsibility of leading the free world.

It is fascinating to speculate on China swooping into that vacuum, happy to see American military forces withdraw from Asia. The picture of an economically strong ally in South Korea eventually reunified with a North Korea economically developing with the infusion of South Korean capital and ingenuity would be a tantalizing one. As master of the continent, China would no longer have to worry about a flood of immigrants across the North Korean border. Of course, they would have to deal with the huge obstacle of Kim Jong Un who would rather blow up the world than give up his throne. But the Chinese are no strangers to stealth. That’s the stuff of a novel for sure.   

The waste of haste is an important factor. In depth knowledge of both negotiating parties is critical to a successful accord. North Korea may be the most disadvantaged in this respect; with its extreme isolation, it is unlikely to have access to detailed intelligence about the current administration, even if China is willing to share its extensive intelligence files. From our perspective, the US has very little intelligence on North Korea; even the basics like how many nuclear weapons, their location, production facilities elude our intelligence. The same is true of the missiles. North Korea has no confidantes in this regard. Even an in depth understanding of the negotiators and political positions is not well understood. With the State Department hollowed out, the historical perspective will be shot full of holes from both disbelief that comes from the suspicion of the “deep state” so rampant in Trump’s world and the expulsion of diplomats who carried their knowledge with them. It is likely that Mike Pompeo is well versed in whatever intelligence there is. But John Bolton, whatever his role, has worked under the dictum that falsified information is acceptable in pursuit of his own “higher” goals. Trump as a frequent user of off the cuff falsification may had selected him in part for just that.  

Still, the most concerning element is Trump’s preference for show over substance. He’s already offered up the candy of a White House visit for Kim if he behaves in Singapore. They don’t have to accomplish anything, they just have to sound like they have. A White House visit is an even bigger propaganda get for Kim, having arrived as a world class leader bringing the US to heel as he tells his populace. And he is their sole window on the world. Just the prospect of a summit propelled Kim to his first ever welcome to Moscow and Beijing. With Trump’s penchant to forego briefings and his refusal, or perhaps, inability, to read, he will have little grasp of the issues where the details are the most important component of any agreement. Trump for his part disagrees. He believes he’s already well prepared saying recently, “I don’t think I have to prepare very much. It’s about attitude and a willingness to get things done.” That’s a bad omen. Hopefully, Trump’s role will be short lived, given his short attention span and his penchant for short meetings.

Given their propensity to lie (or let’s say propagandize) we will never know what occurred in the Kim-Trump tete a tete. Each will emerge with his own face saving winner-take-all pronouncement. No matter what, the hard work will start when the meeting concludes. Hopefully, the Secretary of State and former head of the CIA recognizes that actual Department of Energy scientific experts will need to be intimately involved in the formulation of the treaty, just as they were in the Iran Treaty. Scientists would have to emerge from the administration’s shit list. And hopefully, nuclear scientists will be willing to participate in the process, despite their reservations about the Chief Executive’s politics and policies, given the enormity of the prize. This second stage will be the place where Pompeo will be able to walk back whatever Trump promised initially for lack of the appropriate whisperer in his ear or dearth of information. It will be no surprise to negotiators when positions change and may in fact be anticipated, given the oft reversing RealityTVPresident. This will feed into the likely tactic of the North Koreans, used in the past by Kim’s father, to delay and delay, while continuing to supplement its nuclear and missile programs.

We can only keep fingers crossed. Hopefully, the showdown in Singapore will be the beginning of the long grinding process that will result in an accord that will eventually eliminate nuclear weapons and long range missiles from North Korea, confirmed by regular verifiable inspections reinforced by enforceable penalties for noncompliance. Given the mercurial leaders of both countries, with a penchant for dramatic withdrawal, that seems like a tough ask. But we’re all rooting for it.