How do you solve a problem like Syria? Put simply we don’t. I’m reminded that in my family, this was a frequent question asked about my sister Syria who struck many a dissident family note for much of her life. Obviously, the situation with the more well known Syria has far more ominous international implications.
Bashar al-Assad is sitting pretty these days. Rebel forces, without international sponsors, have been all but defeated by Russian fire power, air attacks, advisors and “mercenary”/Russian soldiers. Iran’s strategically effective organized militia units have also been instrumental in seizing rebel territory. ISIS forces have been driven underground to carry out terrorists attacks throughout the region, waiting in the wings for an opening to seize and govern territory when the dust clears. Still, Assad, long divorced from the country’s remaining population struggling to survive in the war ravaged landscape, is villainous enough to drop chemical weapons in locations near surrender to force rebel forces to a negotiated surrender. This latest chemical attack is not the first time Assad has used this tactic and unlikely to be the last. It’s effective; the rebels surrendered in Douma, a few days after the poisoned gas was dropped.
The 2000 American soldiers stationed in Syria as military advisors are essentially irrelevant to any outcome; just sitting ducks waiting to be picked off by Russian or Iranian forces, a spark to an international conflagration if 45 chooses unwisely to make it so. The RealityTV President likes the optics of an airstrike but he was right when recently he thought out loud that he wanted to withdraw US soldiers. Yes, I said it; for the first time, I agree with something 45 said. Fortunately, it was short-lived and he may be in the process of reversing himself, as he’s tweeted his way into a middle school showdown behind the gym.
But troop withdrawal is the logical endpoint for Trump’s America First withdrawal from international leadership. Outside of a single incidence of missile attacks on Syrian sites believed to be associated with one other chemical attack that happened to catch Trump’s eye via Fox and Friends, 45 has essentially ignored the civil war even while battling ISIS within an international coalition. Grounded as he is in the need for constant expressions of his popularity, Syria lost its value as a propaganda wedge in the war to shield American shores from the Islamic threat so the CelebrityPresident stopped talking (thinking?) about it. Putin, as part of his strategy to restore Russia to a position of world renown, found that support of Assad is a high profile oppositional position against the West. Putin has now positioned himself to broker peace or actually surrender in the conflict, excluding the US from any discussions. Trump sighed with relief and folded the American tent.
Having said that, American interests in Syria beyond anti-terrorism appear minimal, despite the presence of seething rivalries between Muslim sects and countries continually bubbling to the surface, threatening to spill over into other regional and international conflicts. Seemingly, the US has little reason to remain involved. While Syria continues to produce oil for the region, the US is now energy independent and exporting oil. The complexities of the region are beyond the comprehension of the Trump administration, particularly as Trump’s closest advisors have been reshuffled. It is worrisome that diplomatic understanding of the regional history and its relationship with the US has no place in the administration strategy calculations, particularly as they are divorced from any overall conceptualized policy. That kind of knowledge has been lost from the State Department through the intentional paring down of its staff. To date, Trump appears unable to incorporate factual information of any kind in his decision making. Or it could be that he intentionally misstates facts for political purposes. But if his main source of facts is Fox News, that’s an understandable failure.
And yet, 45 has stepped up now to dawn the mantle of Avenger of Chemical Warfare, ginned on in large part, I think, by Bolton who is just itching to get his hands on a trigger. Trump loves the image of playing at war, having never served in one or even seen one up close. He believes the adulation of his base demands a decisive leader. Driven by a fit of peak over the FBI raid on his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen’s apartment, he thumbed a battery of adolescent tweets at Russia for supporting the use of chemical weapons, threatening good and “smart’ missiles. What followed was a war of words, with 45 and the Russians circling around each other like two brawlers sizing each other up. The verbal exchanges allowed time for the Russians to transfer their troops from their own separate installations to embed within Syria forces, to shield them from direct targeting by US missiles. As part of the tough talk, both US and Russian naval ships were being repositioned for potential missile strikes.
Could some yet to be named town in Syria become WWIII’s Sarajevo like when the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand sparked WWI? The Russians have a very sophisticated anti-missile defense system in country, which heightens the possibility American planes could be shot down. US missiles might kill Russian troops, provoking a retaliatory attack of some kind. Since the British and French have stepped up to support US action, although it seems unlikely that it will involve any of their own military hardware, could Russian retaliation target either ally? And then there is Iran, an unknown actor hostile to the US but without the weaponry for any significant attacks except on US forces stationed in the region.
But as the potential for sparking the “Big One” war appeared to escalate, and Trump had a couple of days to temper some of his wrath over FBI seizures at Cohen’s office and apartment, both sides are beginning to deescalate the talk. In reality, there is nothing any country, including Iran and Russia, can do, short of assassination, to dissuade Assad from doing whatever the hell he likes, now that he is near the finish line. Assad will be left with a war ravaged country begging for aid; Putin will have acquired his very own albatross reminiscent of Afghanistan for his predecessors.
Oops, it looks like this was yet another melodrama produced by the Reality TV President. Mueller continues to dog his ass, there’s been only disappointment over the Wall, there’s no new legislation on the runway, and he can only get so much traction out of the onslaught of a caravan of central American hordes composed of women and children threatening the populace in the heartland with – what is it again? Fox News has moved on, so Trump is floundering for new material. The lack of a concerted effort led by the chief executive to acknowledge and combat Russian interference in the election hangs in the air, although probably not in Trump’s mind since Fox News isn’t hawking that story. He’s adequately re-rearranged the deck chairs on his ship of state for the moment. So the Syrian atrocity provided a new avenue to pursue, with the familiar elements of fearless leader persona and fear engendered by the threat of war, although this time of Trump’s own making. Unfortunately all other world leaders haven’t been read into the script, still unaware that they have a part in a reality show. As tradition has demanded, they take themselves and their leadership positions seriously, completely unaware that 45’s most important historical innovation is bringing the world into reality TV. Eventually, they’ll get the joke and just stop responding. Perhaps after 45 has moved through the next several script idea. Still, they’re nothing worse for a narcissist than being ignored, provoking more extreme acting out. It’s a difficult line to walk; respond with words but without change in policy.